Games evaluated
3,178
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 16, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 17, 2026 8:01 AM EDT
Performance summary
3,178 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
69.8%
2,217 correct
Average margin error
22.3
Lower is better
Average score error
13.1
Per-team points
Brier score
0.197
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.5%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 3,178
- Winner accuracy
- 69.8%
- Margin error
- 22.3
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 340 | 79.7% | 20.5 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 21 | 8.4% | 4.8% | -3.7 | 0.045 |
| 10–19% | 209 | 15.8% | 8.6% | -7.2 | 0.084 |
| 20–29% | 351 | 25.4% | 21.1% | -4.3 | 0.168 |
| 30–39% | 487 | 35.1% | 33.5% | -1.6 | 0.222 |
| 40–49% | 608 | 45.1% | 43.1% | -2.0 | 0.244 |
| 50–59% | 533 | 54.9% | 57.4% | +2.6 | 0.246 |
| 60–69% | 439 | 64.8% | 71.5% | +6.7 | 0.204 |
| 70–79% | 356 | 74.8% | 80.6% | +5.9 | 0.158 |
| 80–89% | 157 | 84.1% | 88.5% | +4.4 | 0.101 |
| 90–99% | 17 | 91.6% | 94.1% | +2.5 | 0.057 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,686 | 70.7% | 22.2 points |
| Medium | 49 | 87.8% | 23.3 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,516 | 62.3% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,217 | 63.5% | 22.1 points |
| Upset Possible | 2,064 | 62.4% | 21.9 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Springfield Northwestern vs. Benjamin Logan | 15–25 | 0–78 | 68.5 points |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Trimble vs. Waterford | 21–24 | 0–69 | 65.9 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Aug 21, 2026
Lutheran West vs. Elyria Catholic
- Projected
- 18–19
- Final
- 13–47
- Projected winner
- Elyria Catholic
- Margin error
- 33.1
Aug 21, 2026
Keystone vs. Norwayne
- Projected
- 20–28
- Final
- 36–21
- Projected winner
- Norwayne
- Margin error
- 22.1
Aug 21, 2026
Kenton vs. Eastwood
- Projected
- 19–24
- Final
- 20–28
- Projected winner
- Eastwood
- Margin error
- 3.0
Aug 21, 2026
Huron vs. Oak Harbor
- Projected
- 20–27
- Final
- 7–42
- Projected winner
- Oak Harbor
- Margin error
- 27.0
Aug 21, 2026
Milan Edison vs. Patrick Henry
- Projected
- 22–26
- Final
- 21–42
- Projected winner
- Patrick Henry
- Margin error
- 17.4
Aug 21, 2026
Bryan vs. Van Wert
- Projected
- 17–21
- Final
- 6–41
- Projected winner
- Van Wert
- Margin error
- 31.4
Aug 21, 2026
Bellevue vs. Clyde
- Projected
- 20–23
- Final
- 42–0
- Projected winner
- Clyde
- Margin error
- 45.4
Aug 21, 2026
West Branch vs. St. Clairsville
- Projected
- 26–25
- Final
- 37–6
- Projected winner
- West Branch
- Margin error
- 30.8
Aug 21, 2026
Cleveland VASJ vs. Perkins
- Projected
- 26–24
- Final
- 41–44
- Projected winner
- Cleveland VASJ
- Margin error
- 5.4
Aug 21, 2026
Shaw vs. Clearview
- Projected
- 21–20
- Final
- 40–30
- Projected winner
- Shaw
- Margin error
- 8.4
Aug 21, 2026
Poland Seminary vs. Salem
- Projected
- 23–25
- Final
- 17–21
- Projected winner
- Salem
- Margin error
- 2.3
Aug 21, 2026
Minerva vs. Hanoverton United
- Projected
- 18–26
- Final
- 7–42
- Projected winner
- Hanoverton United
- Margin error
- 26.8
Aug 21, 2026
Lakeview vs. NM Springfield
- Projected
- 22–21
- Final
- 10–33
- Projected winner
- Lakeview
- Margin error
- 23.3
Aug 21, 2026
Mentor Lake Catholic vs. Cardinal Mooney
- Projected
- 24–25
- Final
- 7–41
- Projected winner
- Cardinal Mooney
- Margin error
- 33.2
Aug 21, 2026
Ashtabula Edgewood vs. Ashtabula St. John
- Projected
- 22–19
- Final
- 33–0
- Projected winner
- Ashtabula Edgewood
- Margin error
- 30.5
Aug 21, 2026
East Liverpool vs. Carrollton
- Projected
- 18–22
- Final
- 19–10
- Projected winner
- Carrollton
- Margin error
- 12.3
Aug 21, 2026
Chagrin Falls vs. Jefferson Area
- Projected
- 14–23
- Final
- 14–7
- Projected winner
- Jefferson Area
- Margin error
- 15.7
Aug 21, 2026
Canton South vs. Garaway
- Projected
- 24–22
- Final
- 6–20
- Projected winner
- Canton South
- Margin error
- 15.9
Aug 21, 2026
Beaver vs. Columbiana Crestview
- Projected
- 22–26
- Final
- 35–14
- Projected winner
- Columbiana Crestview
- Margin error
- 25.2
Aug 21, 2026
St. Marys Memorial vs. Galion
- Projected
- 27–21
- Final
- 36–12
- Projected winner
- St. Marys Memorial
- Margin error
- 18.1
Aug 21, 2026
Ross vs. Wyoming
- Projected
- 16–29
- Final
- 3–28
- Projected winner
- Wyoming
- Margin error
- 11.8
Aug 21, 2026
Ponitz vs. Fort Recovery
- Projected
- 16–20
- Final
- 14–35
- Projected winner
- Fort Recovery
- Margin error
- 17.2
Aug 21, 2026
New Richmond vs. Bethel-Tate
- Projected
- 24–17
- Final
- 49–18
- Projected winner
- New Richmond
- Margin error
- 24.9
Aug 21, 2026
Hughes vs. Batavia
- Projected
- 17–24
- Final
- 53–38
- Projected winner
- Batavia
- Margin error
- 22.2
Aug 21, 2026
Greenville vs. Eaton
- Projected
- 20–19
- Final
- 7–21
- Projected winner
- Greenville
- Margin error
- 14.5
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | 18–19 | 13–47 | Elyria Catholic | Elyria Catholic | 33.1 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 20–28 | 36–21 | Norwayne | Keystone | 22.1 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 19–24 | 20–28 | Eastwood | Eastwood | 3.0 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 20–27 | 7–42 | Oak Harbor | Oak Harbor | 27.0 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 22–26 | 21–42 | Patrick Henry | Patrick Henry | 17.4 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 17–21 | 6–41 | Van Wert | Van Wert | 31.4 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 20–23 | 42–0 | Clyde | Bellevue | 45.4 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 26–25 | 37–6 | West Branch | West Branch | 30.8 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 26–24 | 41–44 | Cleveland VASJ | Perkins | 5.4 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 21–20 | 40–30 | Shaw | Shaw | 8.4 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 23–25 | 17–21 | Salem | Salem | 2.3 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 18–26 | 7–42 | Hanoverton United | Hanoverton United | 26.8 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 22–21 | 10–33 | Lakeview | NM Springfield | 23.3 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 24–25 | 7–41 | Cardinal Mooney | Cardinal Mooney | 33.2 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 22–19 | 33–0 | Ashtabula Edgewood | Ashtabula Edgewood | 30.5 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 18–22 | 19–10 | Carrollton | East Liverpool | 12.3 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 14–23 | 14–7 | Jefferson Area | Chagrin Falls | 15.7 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 24–22 | 6–20 | Canton South | Garaway | 15.9 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 22–26 | 35–14 | Columbiana Crestview | Beaver | 25.2 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 27–21 | 36–12 | St. Marys Memorial | St. Marys Memorial | 18.1 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 16–29 | 3–28 | Wyoming | Wyoming | 11.8 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 16–20 | 14–35 | Fort Recovery | Fort Recovery | 17.2 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 24–17 | 49–18 | New Richmond | New Richmond | 24.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 17–24 | 53–38 | Batavia | Hughes | 22.2 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 20–19 | 7–21 | Greenville | Eaton | 14.5 | Missed |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.