Games evaluated
3,178
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 16, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 17, 2026 8:01 AM EDT
Performance summary
3,178 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
69.8%
2,217 correct
Average margin error
22.3
Lower is better
Average score error
13.1
Per-team points
Brier score
0.197
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.5%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 3,178
- Winner accuracy
- 69.8%
- Margin error
- 22.3
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 340 | 79.7% | 20.5 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 21 | 8.4% | 4.8% | -3.7 | 0.045 |
| 10–19% | 209 | 15.8% | 8.6% | -7.2 | 0.084 |
| 20–29% | 351 | 25.4% | 21.1% | -4.3 | 0.168 |
| 30–39% | 487 | 35.1% | 33.5% | -1.6 | 0.222 |
| 40–49% | 608 | 45.1% | 43.1% | -2.0 | 0.244 |
| 50–59% | 533 | 54.9% | 57.4% | +2.6 | 0.246 |
| 60–69% | 439 | 64.8% | 71.5% | +6.7 | 0.204 |
| 70–79% | 356 | 74.8% | 80.6% | +5.9 | 0.158 |
| 80–89% | 157 | 84.1% | 88.5% | +4.4 | 0.101 |
| 90–99% | 17 | 91.6% | 94.1% | +2.5 | 0.057 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,686 | 70.7% | 22.2 points |
| Medium | 49 | 87.8% | 23.3 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,516 | 62.3% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,217 | 63.5% | 22.1 points |
| Upset Possible | 2,064 | 62.4% | 21.9 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Springfield Northwestern vs. Benjamin Logan | 15–25 | 0–78 | 68.5 points |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Trimble vs. Waterford | 21–24 | 0–69 | 65.9 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Aug 21, 2026
Washington CH vs. Mechanicsburg
- Projected
- 21–24
- Final
- 20–32
- Projected winner
- Mechanicsburg
- Margin error
- 9.1
Aug 21, 2026
Valley View vs. Coldwater
- Projected
- 23–27
- Final
- 21–37
- Projected winner
- Coldwater
- Margin error
- 11.6
Aug 21, 2026
Urbana vs. Springfield Northeastern
- Projected
- 23–22
- Final
- 49–0
- Projected winner
- Urbana
- Margin error
- 48.3
Aug 21, 2026
Shroder vs. Madeira
- Projected
- 22–19
- Final
- 8–47
- Projected winner
- Shroder
- Margin error
- 42.4
Aug 21, 2026
Dayton Northridge vs. St. Bernard-Elmwood Place
- Projected
- 23–22
- Final
- 13–18
- Projected winner
- Dayton Northridge
- Margin error
- 6.4
Aug 21, 2026
Milton-Union vs. Carlisle
- Projected
- 18–25
- Final
- 12–43
- Projected winner
- Carlisle
- Margin error
- 23.9
Aug 21, 2026
McClain vs. Adena
- Projected
- 19–18
- Final
- 37–8
- Projected winner
- McClain
- Margin error
- 28.2
Aug 21, 2026
Indian Hill vs. Roger Bacon
- Projected
- 27–21
- Final
- 35–14
- Projected winner
- Indian Hill
- Margin error
- 14.8
Aug 21, 2026
Graham Local vs. Kenton Ridge
- Projected
- 22–23
- Final
- 34–24
- Projected winner
- Kenton Ridge
- Margin error
- 10.4
Aug 21, 2026
Clinton-Massie vs. Waynesville
- Projected
- 24–23
- Final
- 17–20
- Projected winner
- Clinton-Massie
- Margin error
- 4.5
Aug 21, 2026
Vinton County vs. Waterford
- Projected
- 23–22
- Final
- 0–36
- Projected winner
- Vinton County
- Margin error
- 37.5
Aug 21, 2026
Union Local vs. Vincent Warren
- Projected
- 20–23
- Final
- 34–0
- Projected winner
- Vincent Warren
- Margin error
- 36.8
Aug 21, 2026
River View vs. Tri-County North
- Projected
- 14–21
- Final
- 0–62
- Projected winner
- Tri-County North
- Margin error
- 55.3
Aug 21, 2026
Logan Elm vs. Zane Trace
- Projected
- 20–25
- Final
- 27–46
- Projected winner
- Zane Trace
- Margin error
- 14.6
Aug 21, 2026
John Glenn vs. Barnesville
- Projected
- 23–24
- Final
- 19–34
- Projected winner
- Barnesville
- Margin error
- 13.7
Aug 21, 2026
Highland vs. Fredericktown
- Projected
- 18–23
- Final
- 28–7
- Projected winner
- Fredericktown
- Margin error
- 26.5
Aug 21, 2026
Heath vs. Philo
- Projected
- 20–26
- Final
- 21–50
- Projected winner
- Philo
- Margin error
- 23.2
Aug 21, 2026
Fairfield Union vs. New Lexington
- Projected
- 23–25
- Final
- 14–33
- Projected winner
- New Lexington
- Margin error
- 16.8
Aug 21, 2026
Claymont vs. Harrison Central
- Projected
- 16–24
- Final
- 43–0
- Projected winner
- Harrison Central
- Margin error
- 51.1
Aug 21, 2026
Bexley vs. Linden McKinley
- Projected
- 19–24
- Final
- 0–20
- Projected winner
- Linden McKinley
- Margin error
- 14.9
Aug 21, 2026
Wauseon vs. Fairview
- Projected
- 13–31
- Final
- 26–56
- Projected winner
- Fairview
- Margin error
- 12.1
Aug 21, 2026
Vermilion vs. Johnstown
- Projected
- 17–29
- Final
- 14–34
- Projected winner
- Johnstown
- Margin error
- 7.9
Aug 21, 2026
Upper Sandusky vs. Northmor
- Projected
- 21–24
- Final
- 30–21
- Projected winner
- Northmor
- Margin error
- 12.5
Aug 21, 2026
Rossford vs. Northwood
- Projected
- 14–23
- Final
- 24–27
- Projected winner
- Northwood
- Margin error
- 6.3
Aug 21, 2026
Port Clinton vs. Norwalk St. Paul
- Projected
- 27–18
- Final
- 35–0
- Projected winner
- Port Clinton
- Margin error
- 26.4
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | 21–24 | 20–32 | Mechanicsburg | Mechanicsburg | 9.1 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 23–27 | 21–37 | Coldwater | Coldwater | 11.6 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 23–22 | 49–0 | Urbana | Urbana | 48.3 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 22–19 | 8–47 | Shroder | Madeira | 42.4 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 23–22 | 13–18 | Dayton Northridge | St. Bernard-Elmwood Place | 6.4 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 18–25 | 12–43 | Carlisle | Carlisle | 23.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 19–18 | 37–8 | McClain | McClain | 28.2 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 27–21 | 35–14 | Indian Hill | Indian Hill | 14.8 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 22–23 | 34–24 | Kenton Ridge | Graham Local | 10.4 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 24–23 | 17–20 | Clinton-Massie | Waynesville | 4.5 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 23–22 | 0–36 | Vinton County | Waterford | 37.5 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 20–23 | 34–0 | Vincent Warren | Union Local | 36.8 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 14–21 | 0–62 | Tri-County North | Tri-County North | 55.3 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 20–25 | 27–46 | Zane Trace | Zane Trace | 14.6 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 23–24 | 19–34 | Barnesville | Barnesville | 13.7 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 18–23 | 28–7 | Fredericktown | Highland | 26.5 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 20–26 | 21–50 | Philo | Philo | 23.2 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 23–25 | 14–33 | New Lexington | New Lexington | 16.8 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 16–24 | 43–0 | Harrison Central | Claymont | 51.1 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 19–24 | 0–20 | Linden McKinley | Linden McKinley | 14.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 13–31 | 26–56 | Fairview | Fairview | 12.1 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 17–29 | 14–34 | Johnstown | Johnstown | 7.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 21–24 | 30–21 | Northmor | Upper Sandusky | 12.5 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 14–23 | 24–27 | Northwood | Northwood | 6.3 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 27–18 | 35–0 | Port Clinton | Port Clinton | 26.4 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.