Games evaluated
348
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 10, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 11, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
348 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
71.3%
248 correct
Average margin error
21.8
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.181
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
15.2%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 348
- Winner accuracy
- 71.3%
- Margin error
- 21.8
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 6 | 8.1% | 16.7% | +8.6 | 0.140 |
| 10–19% | 37 | 15.2% | 5.4% | -9.8 | 0.061 |
| 20–29% | 27 | 25.0% | 22.2% | -2.7 | 0.171 |
| 30–39% | 40 | 35.2% | 27.5% | -7.7 | 0.193 |
| 40–49% | 63 | 45.3% | 49.2% | +3.9 | 0.249 |
| 50–59% | 59 | 55.2% | 59.3% | +4.2 | 0.243 |
| 60–69% | 37 | 64.3% | 59.5% | -4.9 | 0.232 |
| 70–79% | 48 | 74.9% | 83.3% | +8.4 | 0.140 |
| 80–89% | 27 | 84.3% | 92.6% | +8.3 | 0.075 |
| 90–99% | 4 | 91.4% | 100.0% | +8.6 | 0.007 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 338 | 70.7% | 21.6 points |
| Medium | 10 | 90.0% | 28.3 points |
| Low | 0 | — | — |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Close Game | 210 | 59.5% | 19.5 points |
| Upset Possible | 199 | 59.3% | 19.4 points |
| Limited Data | 5 | 40.0% | 26.0 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Bellbrook vs. Monroe | 21–26 | 56–0 | 60.6 points |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Norwalk vs. Perkins | 12–29 | 0–75 | 58.3 points |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Erie Mason vs. Whiteford | 14–28 | 0–72 | 58.0 points |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Waterford vs. Federal Hocking | 25–15 | 68–0 | 58.0 points |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Blanchester vs. Williamsburg | 23–20 | 18–69 | 54.3 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Oct 9, 2026
Streetsboro vs. Field
- Projected
- 26–14
- Final
- 42–0
- Projected winner
- Streetsboro
- Margin error
- 30.3
Oct 9, 2026
Akron Springfield vs. Woodridge
- Projected
- 13–28
- Final
- 7–48
- Projected winner
- Woodridge
- Margin error
- 26.3
Oct 9, 2026
ND Cathedral Latin vs. Cuyahoga Valley CA
- Projected
- 27–20
- Final
- 35–7
- Projected winner
- ND Cathedral Latin
- Margin error
- 20.6
Oct 9, 2026
Niles McKinley vs. South Range
- Projected
- 16–28
- Final
- 2–41
- Projected winner
- South Range
- Margin error
- 27.0
Oct 9, 2026
Marlington vs. Carrollton
- Projected
- 24–17
- Final
- 11–38
- Projected winner
- Marlington
- Margin error
- 33.9
Oct 9, 2026
New Philadelphia vs. Lexington
- Projected
- 23–17
- Final
- 63–35
- Projected winner
- New Philadelphia
- Margin error
- 22.8
Oct 9, 2026
Hubbard vs. Lakeview
- Projected
- 26–16
- Final
- 56–3
- Projected winner
- Hubbard
- Margin error
- 43.2
Oct 9, 2026
Howland vs. Salem
- Projected
- 19–26
- Final
- 28–14
- Projected winner
- Salem
- Margin error
- 20.9
Oct 9, 2026
Geneva vs. West Geauga
- Projected
- 18–26
- Final
- 0–42
- Projected winner
- West Geauga
- Margin error
- 33.2
Oct 9, 2026
Youngstown vs. Cleveland VASJ
- Projected
- 16–28
- Final
- 28–35
- Projected winner
- Cleveland VASJ
- Margin error
- 4.7
Oct 9, 2026
Dover vs. Mansfield Madison
- Projected
- 27–15
- Final
- 43–13
- Projected winner
- Dover
- Margin error
- 18.8
Oct 9, 2026
Chardon vs. Perry
- Projected
- 19–30
- Final
- 14–21
- Projected winner
- Perry
- Margin error
- 4.0
Oct 9, 2026
Canfield vs. Wheeling Park
- Projected
- 18–25
- Final
- 23–7
- Projected winner
- Wheeling Park
- Margin error
- 23.2
Oct 9, 2026
Alliance vs. Coventry
- Projected
- 23–15
- Final
- 34–0
- Projected winner
- Alliance
- Margin error
- 25.9
Oct 9, 2026
Withrow vs. Aiken
- Projected
- 26–18
- Final
- 33–0
- Projected winner
- Withrow
- Margin error
- 24.1
Oct 9, 2026
West Carrollton vs. Butler
- Projected
- 12–27
- Final
- 6–35
- Projected winner
- Butler
- Margin error
- 14.3
Oct 9, 2026
Tecumseh vs. Bellefontaine
- Projected
- 18–19
- Final
- 26–34
- Projected winner
- Bellefontaine
- Margin error
- 7.8
Oct 9, 2026
Sidney vs. Troy
- Projected
- 18–24
- Final
- 0–49
- Projected winner
- Troy
- Margin error
- 42.6
Oct 9, 2026
Piqua vs. Stebbins
- Projected
- 18–22
- Final
- 28–7
- Projected winner
- Stebbins
- Margin error
- 24.7
Oct 9, 2026
Little Miami vs. Loveland
- Projected
- 21–18
- Final
- 34–0
- Projected winner
- Little Miami
- Margin error
- 30.7
Oct 9, 2026
Harrison vs. Talawanda
- Projected
- 26–25
- Final
- 20–7
- Projected winner
- Harrison
- Margin error
- 12.3
Oct 9, 2026
Fairborn vs. Xenia
- Projected
- 25–19
- Final
- 30–44
- Projected winner
- Fairborn
- Margin error
- 20.8
Oct 9, 2026
Trenton Edgewood vs. Valley View
- Projected
- 21–24
- Final
- 10–28
- Projected winner
- Valley View
- Margin error
- 15.0
Oct 9, 2026
Worthington Kilbourne vs. KIPP Columbus
- Projected
- 30–13
- Final
- 42–6
- Projected winner
- Worthington Kilbourne
- Margin error
- 18.8
Oct 9, 2026
Wooster vs. Mansfield Senior
- Projected
- 20–17
- Final
- 25–13
- Projected winner
- Wooster
- Margin error
- 8.9
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | 26–14 | 42–0 | Streetsboro | Streetsboro | 30.3 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 13–28 | 7–48 | Woodridge | Woodridge | 26.3 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 27–20 | 35–7 | ND Cathedral Latin | ND Cathedral Latin | 20.6 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 16–28 | 2–41 | South Range | South Range | 27.0 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 24–17 | 11–38 | Marlington | Carrollton | 33.9 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 23–17 | 63–35 | New Philadelphia | New Philadelphia | 22.8 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 26–16 | 56–3 | Hubbard | Hubbard | 43.2 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 19–26 | 28–14 | Salem | Howland | 20.9 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 18–26 | 0–42 | West Geauga | West Geauga | 33.2 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 16–28 | 28–35 | Cleveland VASJ | Cleveland VASJ | 4.7 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 27–15 | 43–13 | Dover | Dover | 18.8 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 19–30 | 14–21 | Perry | Perry | 4.0 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 18–25 | 23–7 | Wheeling Park | Canfield | 23.2 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 23–15 | 34–0 | Alliance | Alliance | 25.9 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 26–18 | 33–0 | Withrow | Withrow | 24.1 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 12–27 | 6–35 | Butler | Butler | 14.3 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 18–19 | 26–34 | Bellefontaine | Bellefontaine | 7.8 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 18–24 | 0–49 | Troy | Troy | 42.6 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 18–22 | 28–7 | Stebbins | Piqua | 24.7 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 21–18 | 34–0 | Little Miami | Little Miami | 30.7 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 26–25 | 20–7 | Harrison | Harrison | 12.3 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 25–19 | 30–44 | Fairborn | Xenia | 20.8 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 21–24 | 10–28 | Valley View | Valley View | 15.0 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 30–13 | 42–6 | Worthington Kilbourne | Worthington Kilbourne | 18.8 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 20–17 | 25–13 | Wooster | Wooster | 8.9 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
