Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Oct 9, 2026
Cleveland Central Catholic vs. Lutheran East
- Projected
- 25–18
- Final
- 28–6
- Projected winner
- Cleveland Central Catholic
- Margin error
- 14.4
Oct 9, 2026
Bowling Green vs. Napoleon
- Projected
- 19–18
- Final
- 7–35
- Projected winner
- Bowling Green
- Margin error
- 28.3
Oct 9, 2026
Ashland vs. West Holmes
- Projected
- 17–27
- Final
- 21–42
- Projected winner
- West Holmes
- Margin error
- 10.3
Oct 9, 2026
Tallmadge vs. Cloverleaf
- Projected
- 20–27
- Final
- 17–24
- Projected winner
- Cloverleaf
- Margin error
- 0.9
Oct 9, 2026
Streetsboro vs. Field
- Projected
- 26–14
- Final
- 42–0
- Projected winner
- Streetsboro
- Margin error
- 30.3
Oct 9, 2026
Akron Springfield vs. Woodridge
- Projected
- 13–28
- Final
- 7–48
- Projected winner
- Woodridge
- Margin error
- 26.3
Oct 9, 2026
ND Cathedral Latin vs. Cuyahoga Valley CA
- Projected
- 27–20
- Final
- 35–7
- Projected winner
- ND Cathedral Latin
- Margin error
- 20.6
Oct 9, 2026
Niles McKinley vs. South Range
- Projected
- 16–28
- Final
- 2–41
- Projected winner
- South Range
- Margin error
- 27.0
Oct 9, 2026
Marlington vs. Carrollton
- Projected
- 24–17
- Final
- 11–38
- Projected winner
- Marlington
- Margin error
- 33.9
Oct 9, 2026
New Philadelphia vs. Lexington
- Projected
- 23–17
- Final
- 63–35
- Projected winner
- New Philadelphia
- Margin error
- 22.8
Oct 9, 2026
Hubbard vs. Lakeview
- Projected
- 26–16
- Final
- 56–3
- Projected winner
- Hubbard
- Margin error
- 43.2
Oct 9, 2026
Howland vs. Salem
- Projected
- 19–26
- Final
- 28–14
- Projected winner
- Salem
- Margin error
- 20.9
Oct 9, 2026
Geneva vs. West Geauga
- Projected
- 18–26
- Final
- 0–42
- Projected winner
- West Geauga
- Margin error
- 33.2
Oct 9, 2026
Youngstown vs. Cleveland VASJ
- Projected
- 16–28
- Final
- 28–35
- Projected winner
- Cleveland VASJ
- Margin error
- 4.7
Oct 9, 2026
Dover vs. Mansfield Madison
- Projected
- 27–15
- Final
- 43–13
- Projected winner
- Dover
- Margin error
- 18.8
Oct 9, 2026
Chardon vs. Perry
- Projected
- 19–30
- Final
- 14–21
- Projected winner
- Perry
- Margin error
- 4.0
Oct 9, 2026
Canfield vs. Wheeling Park
- Projected
- 18–25
- Final
- 23–7
- Projected winner
- Wheeling Park
- Margin error
- 23.2
Oct 9, 2026
Alliance vs. Coventry
- Projected
- 23–15
- Final
- 34–0
- Projected winner
- Alliance
- Margin error
- 25.9
Oct 9, 2026
Withrow vs. Aiken
- Projected
- 26–18
- Final
- 33–0
- Projected winner
- Withrow
- Margin error
- 24.1
Oct 9, 2026
West Carrollton vs. Butler
- Projected
- 12–27
- Final
- 6–35
- Projected winner
- Butler
- Margin error
- 14.3
Oct 9, 2026
Tecumseh vs. Bellefontaine
- Projected
- 18–19
- Final
- 26–34
- Projected winner
- Bellefontaine
- Margin error
- 7.8
Oct 9, 2026
Sidney vs. Troy
- Projected
- 18–24
- Final
- 0–49
- Projected winner
- Troy
- Margin error
- 42.6
Oct 9, 2026
Piqua vs. Stebbins
- Projected
- 18–22
- Final
- 28–7
- Projected winner
- Stebbins
- Margin error
- 24.7
Oct 9, 2026
Little Miami vs. Loveland
- Projected
- 21–18
- Final
- 34–0
- Projected winner
- Little Miami
- Margin error
- 30.7
Oct 9, 2026
Harrison vs. Talawanda
- Projected
- 26–25
- Final
- 20–7
- Projected winner
- Harrison
- Margin error
- 12.3
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | 25–18 | 28–6 | Cleveland Central Catholic | Cleveland Central Catholic | 14.4 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 19–18 | 7–35 | Bowling Green | Napoleon | 28.3 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 17–27 | 21–42 | West Holmes | West Holmes | 10.3 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 20–27 | 17–24 | Cloverleaf | Cloverleaf | 0.9 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 26–14 | 42–0 | Streetsboro | Streetsboro | 30.3 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 13–28 | 7–48 | Woodridge | Woodridge | 26.3 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 27–20 | 35–7 | ND Cathedral Latin | ND Cathedral Latin | 20.6 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 16–28 | 2–41 | South Range | South Range | 27.0 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 24–17 | 11–38 | Marlington | Carrollton | 33.9 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 23–17 | 63–35 | New Philadelphia | New Philadelphia | 22.8 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 26–16 | 56–3 | Hubbard | Hubbard | 43.2 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 19–26 | 28–14 | Salem | Howland | 20.9 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 18–26 | 0–42 | West Geauga | West Geauga | 33.2 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 16–28 | 28–35 | Cleveland VASJ | Cleveland VASJ | 4.7 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 27–15 | 43–13 | Dover | Dover | 18.8 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 19–30 | 14–21 | Perry | Perry | 4.0 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 18–25 | 23–7 | Wheeling Park | Canfield | 23.2 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 23–15 | 34–0 | Alliance | Alliance | 25.9 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 26–18 | 33–0 | Withrow | Withrow | 24.1 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 12–27 | 6–35 | Butler | Butler | 14.3 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 18–19 | 26–34 | Bellefontaine | Bellefontaine | 7.8 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 18–24 | 0–49 | Troy | Troy | 42.6 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 18–22 | 28–7 | Stebbins | Piqua | 24.7 | Missed | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 21–18 | 34–0 | Little Miami | Little Miami | 30.7 | Correct | |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 26–25 | 20–7 | Harrison | Harrison | 12.3 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
