Games evaluated
351
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Aug 29, 2026
Accuracy calculated Aug 31, 2026 9:52 AM EDT
Performance summary
351 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
61.0%
214 correct
Average margin error
23.3
Lower is better
Average score error
13.4
Per-team points
Brier score
0.229
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
10.8%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 351
- Winner accuracy
- 61.0%
- Margin error
- 23.3
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–19% | 13 | 17.5% | 23.1% | +5.6 | 0.191 |
| 20–29% | 32 | 26.6% | 25.0% | -1.6 | 0.190 |
| 30–39% | 53 | 35.0% | 37.7% | +2.7 | 0.230 |
| 40–49% | 96 | 45.6% | 49.0% | +3.3 | 0.249 |
| 50–59% | 54 | 55.1% | 51.9% | -3.2 | 0.256 |
| 60–69% | 51 | 65.0% | 62.7% | -2.2 | 0.232 |
| 70–79% | 45 | 74.6% | 73.3% | -1.2 | 0.192 |
| 80–89% | 7 | 82.9% | 71.4% | -11.4 | 0.213 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 252 | 55.6% | 22.8 points |
| Medium | 21 | 76.2% | 21.5 points |
| Low | 78 | 74.4% | 25.2 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 points |
| Close Game | 273 | 57.5% | 23.1 points |
| Upset Possible | 253 | 55.7% | 22.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | Warrensville Heights vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–20 | 57–0 | 59.2 points |
| Aug 28, 2026 | West Clermont vs. Anderson | 24–17 | 19–70 | 58.8 points |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Ross vs. Thurgood Marshall | 19–20 | 57–0 | 57.4 points |
| Aug 29, 2026 | John Marshall vs. Rocky River | 17–24 | 0–63 | 56.8 points |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Wayne Trace vs. Spencerville | 18–19 | 55–0 | 56.2 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Aug 29, 2026
Gamble Montessori vs. Millersport
- Projected
- 24–21
- Final
- 46–13
- Projected winner
- Gamble Montessori
- Margin error
- 30.1
Aug 29, 2026
Elyria vs. Lorain
- Projected
- 19–20
- Final
- 22–42
- Projected winner
- Lorain
- Margin error
- 19.8
Aug 29, 2026
Lima Central Catholic vs. Delphos St. John's
- Projected
- 25–20
- Final
- 41–0
- Projected winner
- Lima Central Catholic
- Margin error
- 36.1
Aug 29, 2026
Fairport Harding vs. Ashtabula St. John
- Projected
- 22–18
- Final
- 0–33
- Projected winner
- Fairport Harding
- Margin error
- 36.9
Aug 29, 2026
Warrensville Heights vs. Cleveland JFK
- Projected
- 18–20
- Final
- 57–0
- Projected winner
- Cleveland JFK
- Margin error
- 59.2
Aug 29, 2026
Eastmoor Academy vs. Cincinnati College Prep
- Projected
- 16–25
- Final
- 12–38
- Projected winner
- Cincinnati College Prep
- Margin error
- 17.5
Aug 29, 2026
Akron Garfield vs. Revere
- Projected
- 21–18
- Final
- 12–28
- Projected winner
- Akron Garfield
- Margin error
- 18.3
Aug 29, 2026
John Marshall vs. Rocky River
- Projected
- 17–24
- Final
- 0–63
- Projected winner
- Rocky River
- Margin error
- 56.8
Aug 28, 2026
Brooklyn vs. Willard
- Projected
- 18–22
- Final
- 0–41
- Projected winner
- Willard
- Margin error
- 37.2
Aug 28, 2026
Greenup County vs. Russell
- Projected
- 22–24
- Final
- 22–28
- Projected winner
- Russell
- Margin error
- 4.2
Aug 28, 2026
Wheeling Central Catholic vs. Perry Traditional Academy
- Projected
- 26–15
- Final
- 50–8
- Projected winner
- Wheeling Central Catholic
- Margin error
- 30.3
Aug 28, 2026
Highlands vs. Cooper
- Projected
- 25–23
- Final
- 45–6
- Projected winner
- Highlands
- Margin error
- 37.9
Aug 28, 2026
Sidney Lehman vs. Southeastern Local
- Projected
- 18–24
- Final
- 8–14
- Projected winner
- Southeastern Local
- Margin error
- 0.0
Aug 28, 2026
Fayetteville-Perry vs. Portsmouth Notre Dame
- Projected
- 25–16
- Final
- 6–27
- Projected winner
- Fayetteville-Perry
- Margin error
- 29.5
Aug 28, 2026
Springfield Catholic Central vs. Troy Christian
- Projected
- 19–23
- Final
- 0–42
- Projected winner
- Troy Christian
- Margin error
- 37.4
Aug 28, 2026
Bradford vs. Twin Valley South
- Projected
- 19–20
- Final
- 28–8
- Projected winner
- Twin Valley South
- Margin error
- 20.7
Aug 28, 2026
Frontier vs. Magnolia
- Projected
- 25–15
- Final
- 45–14
- Projected winner
- Frontier
- Margin error
- 21.3
Aug 28, 2026
Fisher Catholic vs. Tuscarawas Central Catholic
- Projected
- 23–17
- Final
- 28–22
- Projected winner
- Fisher Catholic
- Margin error
- 0.2
Aug 28, 2026
Reedsville Eastern vs. Miller
- Projected
- 19–20
- Final
- 34–8
- Projected winner
- Miller
- Margin error
- 26.2
Aug 28, 2026
Fairfield Christian vs. Trimble
- Projected
- 19–20
- Final
- 0–42
- Projected winner
- Trimble
- Margin error
- 41.6
Aug 28, 2026
Caldwell vs. Waterford
- Projected
- 23–24
- Final
- 8–15
- Projected winner
- Waterford
- Margin error
- 6.8
Aug 28, 2026
Bishop Rosecrans vs. Conotton Valley
- Projected
- 17–25
- Final
- 13–62
- Projected winner
- Conotton Valley
- Margin error
- 41.6
Aug 28, 2026
Lima Perry vs. Ridgemont
- Projected
- 19–20
- Final
- 42–0
- Projected winner
- Ridgemont
- Margin error
- 42.3
Aug 28, 2026
Leipsic vs. McComb
- Projected
- 23–24
- Final
- 26–7
- Projected winner
- McComb
- Margin error
- 19.6
Aug 28, 2026
Mohawk vs. Cardington-Lincoln
- Projected
- 21–20
- Final
- 56–14
- Projected winner
- Mohawk
- Margin error
- 41.2
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | 24–21 | 46–13 | Gamble Montessori | Gamble Montessori | 30.1 | Correct | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | 19–20 | 22–42 | Lorain | Lorain | 19.8 | Correct | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | 25–20 | 41–0 | Lima Central Catholic | Lima Central Catholic | 36.1 | Correct | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | 22–18 | 0–33 | Fairport Harding | Ashtabula St. John | 36.9 | Missed | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | 18–20 | 57–0 | Cleveland JFK | Warrensville Heights | 59.2 | Missed | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | 16–25 | 12–38 | Cincinnati College Prep | Cincinnati College Prep | 17.5 | Correct | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | 21–18 | 12–28 | Akron Garfield | Revere | 18.3 | Missed | |
| Aug 29, 2026 | 17–24 | 0–63 | Rocky River | Rocky River | 56.8 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 18–22 | 0–41 | Willard | Willard | 37.2 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 22–24 | 22–28 | Russell | Russell | 4.2 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 26–15 | 50–8 | Wheeling Central Catholic | Wheeling Central Catholic | 30.3 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 25–23 | 45–6 | Highlands | Highlands | 37.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 18–24 | 8–14 | Southeastern Local | Southeastern Local | 0.0 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 25–16 | 6–27 | Fayetteville-Perry | Portsmouth Notre Dame | 29.5 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 19–23 | 0–42 | Troy Christian | Troy Christian | 37.4 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 19–20 | 28–8 | Twin Valley South | Bradford | 20.7 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 25–15 | 45–14 | Frontier | Frontier | 21.3 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 23–17 | 28–22 | Fisher Catholic | Fisher Catholic | 0.2 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 19–20 | 34–8 | Miller | Reedsville Eastern | 26.2 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 19–20 | 0–42 | Trimble | Trimble | 41.6 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 23–24 | 8–15 | Waterford | Waterford | 6.8 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 17–25 | 13–62 | Conotton Valley | Conotton Valley | 41.6 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 19–20 | 42–0 | Ridgemont | Lima Perry | 42.3 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 23–24 | 26–7 | McComb | Leipsic | 19.6 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 21–20 | 56–14 | Mohawk | Mohawk | 41.2 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
