Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Aug 28, 2026
Talawanda vs. Meadowdale
- Projected
- 25–18
- Final
- 49–0
- Projected winner
- Talawanda
- Margin error
- 42.4
Aug 28, 2026
Stebbins vs. Butler
- Projected
- 22–24
- Final
- 28–42
- Projected winner
- Butler
- Margin error
- 12.4
Aug 28, 2026
Piqua vs. Tippecanoe
- Projected
- 21–18
- Final
- 0–49
- Projected winner
- Piqua
- Margin error
- 51.5
Aug 28, 2026
Little Miami vs. Turpin
- Projected
- 23–20
- Final
- 27–24
- Projected winner
- Little Miami
- Margin error
- 0.8
Aug 28, 2026
Kings vs. Winton Woods
- Projected
- 22–21
- Final
- 0–35
- Projected winner
- Kings
- Margin error
- 36.6
Aug 28, 2026
Harrison vs. Archbishop McNicholas
- Projected
- 22–23
- Final
- 28–0
- Projected winner
- Archbishop McNicholas
- Margin error
- 29.8
Aug 28, 2026
Franklin Heights vs. Linden McKinley
- Projected
- 19–25
- Final
- 2–20
- Projected winner
- Linden McKinley
- Margin error
- 11.7
Aug 28, 2026
Fairborn vs. Sidney
- Projected
- 21–19
- Final
- 49–6
- Projected winner
- Fairborn
- Margin error
- 41.3
Aug 28, 2026
Belmont vs. New Miami
- Projected
- 25–18
- Final
- 38–0
- Projected winner
- Belmont
- Margin error
- 31.3
Aug 28, 2026
Wooster vs. Alliance
- Projected
- 20–21
- Final
- 29–32
- Projected winner
- Alliance
- Margin error
- 2.8
Aug 28, 2026
Whitehall-Yearling vs. Columbus East
- Projected
- 20–22
- Final
- 14–25
- Projected winner
- Columbus East
- Margin error
- 9.6
Aug 28, 2026
Whetstone vs. Grandview Heights
- Projected
- 17–23
- Final
- 0–53
- Projected winner
- Grandview Heights
- Margin error
- 46.6
Aug 28, 2026
Watkins Memorial vs. Sheridan
- Projected
- 18–21
- Final
- 14–21
- Projected winner
- Sheridan
- Margin error
- 4.3
Aug 28, 2026
Walnut Ridge vs. Columbus DeSales
- Projected
- 16–27
- Final
- 6–41
- Projected winner
- Columbus DeSales
- Margin error
- 23.7
Aug 28, 2026
St. Charles vs. Hamilton Township
- Projected
- 25–19
- Final
- 28–26
- Projected winner
- St. Charles
- Margin error
- 4.3
Aug 28, 2026
Massillon Perry vs. Akron St. Vincent-St. Mary
- Projected
- 24–17
- Final
- 41–0
- Projected winner
- Massillon Perry
- Margin error
- 35.0
Aug 28, 2026
Northland vs. Aiken
- Projected
- 19–23
- Final
- 18–14
- Projected winner
- Aiken
- Margin error
- 7.8
Aug 28, 2026
Mifflin vs. Martins Ferry
- Projected
- 15–26
- Final
- 6–60
- Projected winner
- Martins Ferry
- Margin error
- 42.8
Aug 28, 2026
Marion Harding vs. Ashland
- Projected
- 23–22
- Final
- 13–27
- Projected winner
- Marion Harding
- Margin error
- 14.1
Aug 28, 2026
Logan vs. Nelsonville-York
- Projected
- 17–24
- Final
- 6–48
- Projected winner
- Nelsonville-York
- Margin error
- 35.1
Aug 28, 2026
Licking Heights vs. Bishop Ready
- Projected
- 19–25
- Final
- 21–34
- Projected winner
- Bishop Ready
- Margin error
- 6.9
Aug 28, 2026
Columbus Independence vs. Beechcroft
- Projected
- 18–24
- Final
- 18–15
- Projected winner
- Beechcroft
- Margin error
- 9.1
Aug 28, 2026
Uniontown Green vs. Tallmadge
- Projected
- 20–22
- Final
- 28–7
- Projected winner
- Tallmadge
- Margin error
- 23.5
Aug 28, 2026
Dublin Scioto vs. Briggs
- Projected
- 22–19
- Final
- 42–36
- Projected winner
- Dublin Scioto
- Margin error
- 2.7
Aug 28, 2026
Waite vs. Rossford
- Projected
- 21–19
- Final
- 28–21
- Projected winner
- Waite
- Margin error
- 5.0
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2026 | 25–18 | 49–0 | Talawanda | Talawanda | 42.4 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 22–24 | 28–42 | Butler | Butler | 12.4 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 21–18 | 0–49 | Piqua | Tippecanoe | 51.5 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 23–20 | 27–24 | Little Miami | Little Miami | 0.8 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 22–21 | 0–35 | Kings | Winton Woods | 36.6 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 22–23 | 28–0 | Archbishop McNicholas | Harrison | 29.8 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 19–25 | 2–20 | Linden McKinley | Linden McKinley | 11.7 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 21–19 | 49–6 | Fairborn | Fairborn | 41.3 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 25–18 | 38–0 | Belmont | Belmont | 31.3 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 20–21 | 29–32 | Alliance | Alliance | 2.8 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 20–22 | 14–25 | Columbus East | Columbus East | 9.6 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 17–23 | 0–53 | Grandview Heights | Grandview Heights | 46.6 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 18–21 | 14–21 | Sheridan | Sheridan | 4.3 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 16–27 | 6–41 | Columbus DeSales | Columbus DeSales | 23.7 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 25–19 | 28–26 | St. Charles | St. Charles | 4.3 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 24–17 | 41–0 | Massillon Perry | Massillon Perry | 35.0 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 19–23 | 18–14 | Aiken | Northland | 7.8 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 15–26 | 6–60 | Martins Ferry | Martins Ferry | 42.8 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 23–22 | 13–27 | Marion Harding | Ashland | 14.1 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 17–24 | 6–48 | Nelsonville-York | Nelsonville-York | 35.1 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 19–25 | 21–34 | Bishop Ready | Bishop Ready | 6.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 18–24 | 18–15 | Beechcroft | Columbus Independence | 9.1 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 20–22 | 28–7 | Tallmadge | Uniontown Green | 23.5 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 22–19 | 42–36 | Dublin Scioto | Dublin Scioto | 2.7 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 21–19 | 28–21 | Waite | Waite | 5.0 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
