Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Sep 4, 2026
Mechanicsburg vs. Southeastern Local
- Projected
- 20–21
- Final
- 34–8
- Projected winner
- Southeastern Local
- Margin error
- 26.7
Sep 4, 2026
Greeneview vs. Springfield Northeastern
- Projected
- 22–17
- Final
- 41–7
- Projected winner
- Greeneview
- Margin error
- 29.0
Sep 4, 2026
Deer Park vs. Miami Valley CA
- Projected
- 22–25
- Final
- 48–6
- Projected winner
- Miami Valley CA
- Margin error
- 45.0
Sep 4, 2026
Dayton Christian vs. Troy Christian
- Projected
- 20–25
- Final
- 35–0
- Projected winner
- Troy Christian
- Margin error
- 39.6
Sep 4, 2026
Coldwater vs. Fort Recovery
- Projected
- 23–22
- Final
- 35–9
- Projected winner
- Coldwater
- Margin error
- 25.6
Sep 4, 2026
Arcanum vs. Dixie
- Projected
- 19–24
- Final
- 47–7
- Projected winner
- Dixie
- Margin error
- 44.5
Sep 4, 2026
Anna vs. Parkway
- Projected
- 23–21
- Final
- 43–6
- Projected winner
- Anna
- Margin error
- 35.6
Sep 4, 2026
Symmes Valley vs. Berne Union
- Projected
- 28–18
- Final
- 56–7
- Projected winner
- Symmes Valley
- Margin error
- 39.1
Sep 4, 2026
Chillicothe Southeastern vs. Fayetteville-Perry
- Projected
- 25–18
- Final
- 28–22
- Projected winner
- Chillicothe Southeastern
- Margin error
- 1.0
Sep 4, 2026
Shenandoah vs. Waterford
- Projected
- 25–23
- Final
- 0–35
- Projected winner
- Shenandoah
- Margin error
- 37.5
Sep 4, 2026
Newcomerstown vs. Conotton Valley
- Projected
- 21–25
- Final
- 58–14
- Projected winner
- Conotton Valley
- Margin error
- 48.2
Sep 4, 2026
Mount Gilead vs. Grove City Christian
- Projected
- 21–17
- Final
- 42–7
- Projected winner
- Mount Gilead
- Margin error
- 31.1
Sep 4, 2026
Grandview Heights vs. Johnstown Northridge
- Projected
- 27–14
- Final
- 14–49
- Projected winner
- Grandview Heights
- Margin error
- 47.6
Sep 4, 2026
Fort Frye vs. Wheeling Central Catholic
- Projected
- 22–26
- Final
- 29–27
- Projected winner
- Wheeling Central Catholic
- Margin error
- 6.3
Sep 4, 2026
Marion Elgin vs. Waynesfield-Goshen
- Projected
- 26–18
- Final
- 59–28
- Projected winner
- Marion Elgin
- Margin error
- 22.7
Sep 4, 2026
Coal Grove vs. Nelsonville-York
- Projected
- 16–27
- Final
- 14–49
- Projected winner
- Nelsonville-York
- Margin error
- 23.7
Sep 4, 2026
Centerburg vs. Worthington Christian
- Projected
- 21–22
- Final
- 13–31
- Projected winner
- Worthington Christian
- Margin error
- 17.0
Sep 4, 2026
Buckeye Trail vs. Newark Catholic
- Projected
- 15–24
- Final
- 0–31
- Projected winner
- Newark Catholic
- Margin error
- 21.4
Sep 4, 2026
Belpre vs. Frontier
- Projected
- 20–26
- Final
- 6–41
- Projected winner
- Frontier
- Margin error
- 28.5
Sep 4, 2026
Wayne Trace vs. Convoy Crestview
- Projected
- 23–18
- Final
- 35–21
- Projected winner
- Wayne Trace
- Margin error
- 8.5
Sep 4, 2026
Van Buren vs. Pandora-Gilboa
- Projected
- 26–18
- Final
- 28–13
- Projected winner
- Van Buren
- Margin error
- 7.9
Sep 4, 2026
Seneca East vs. Tiffin Calvert
- Projected
- 25–17
- Final
- 41–7
- Projected winner
- Seneca East
- Margin error
- 25.6
Sep 4, 2026
Paulding vs. Delphos Jefferson
- Projected
- 25–21
- Final
- 20–21
- Projected winner
- Paulding
- Margin error
- 4.0
Sep 4, 2026
Riverdale vs. Leipsic
- Projected
- 21–23
- Final
- 0–51
- Projected winner
- Leipsic
- Margin error
- 48.6
Sep 4, 2026
Northwood vs. Norwalk St. Paul
- Projected
- 23–17
- Final
- 28–0
- Projected winner
- Northwood
- Margin error
- 22.4
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | 20–21 | 34–8 | Southeastern Local | Mechanicsburg | 26.7 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 22–17 | 41–7 | Greeneview | Greeneview | 29.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 22–25 | 48–6 | Miami Valley CA | Deer Park | 45.0 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 20–25 | 35–0 | Troy Christian | Dayton Christian | 39.6 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 23–22 | 35–9 | Coldwater | Coldwater | 25.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 19–24 | 47–7 | Dixie | Arcanum | 44.5 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 23–21 | 43–6 | Anna | Anna | 35.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 28–18 | 56–7 | Symmes Valley | Symmes Valley | 39.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 25–18 | 28–22 | Chillicothe Southeastern | Chillicothe Southeastern | 1.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 25–23 | 0–35 | Shenandoah | Waterford | 37.5 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 21–25 | 58–14 | Conotton Valley | Newcomerstown | 48.2 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 21–17 | 42–7 | Mount Gilead | Mount Gilead | 31.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 27–14 | 14–49 | Grandview Heights | Johnstown Northridge | 47.6 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 22–26 | 29–27 | Wheeling Central Catholic | Fort Frye | 6.3 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 26–18 | 59–28 | Marion Elgin | Marion Elgin | 22.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 16–27 | 14–49 | Nelsonville-York | Nelsonville-York | 23.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 21–22 | 13–31 | Worthington Christian | Worthington Christian | 17.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 15–24 | 0–31 | Newark Catholic | Newark Catholic | 21.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 20–26 | 6–41 | Frontier | Frontier | 28.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 23–18 | 35–21 | Wayne Trace | Wayne Trace | 8.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 26–18 | 28–13 | Van Buren | Van Buren | 7.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 25–17 | 41–7 | Seneca East | Seneca East | 25.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 25–21 | 20–21 | Paulding | Delphos Jefferson | 4.0 | Missed | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 21–23 | 0–51 | Leipsic | Leipsic | 48.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 23–17 | 28–0 | Northwood | Northwood | 22.4 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
