Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Sep 11, 2026
Arcanum vs. Bradford
- Projected
- 24–20
- Final
- 48–0
- Projected winner
- Arcanum
- Margin error
- 44.3
Sep 11, 2026
Anna vs. St. Henry
- Projected
- 23–22
- Final
- 0–39
- Projected winner
- Anna
- Margin error
- 40.5
Sep 11, 2026
Adena vs. Paint Valley
- Projected
- 20–19
- Final
- 41–7
- Projected winner
- Adena
- Margin error
- 32.0
Sep 11, 2026
Worthington Christian vs. Newark Catholic
- Projected
- 24–20
- Final
- 6–15
- Projected winner
- Worthington Christian
- Margin error
- 12.5
Sep 11, 2026
West Jefferson vs. Cedarville
- Projected
- 25–18
- Final
- 44–6
- Projected winner
- West Jefferson
- Margin error
- 30.6
Sep 11, 2026
Northmor vs. Cardington-Lincoln
- Projected
- 20–17
- Final
- 41–8
- Projected winner
- Northmor
- Margin error
- 30.4
Sep 11, 2026
Loudonville vs. Mount Gilead
- Projected
- 22–21
- Final
- 18–46
- Projected winner
- Loudonville
- Margin error
- 28.7
Sep 11, 2026
Fredericktown vs. Danville
- Projected
- 19–26
- Final
- 7–52
- Projected winner
- Danville
- Margin error
- 38.1
Sep 11, 2026
Fort Frye vs. Waterford
- Projected
- 26–22
- Final
- 20–0
- Projected winner
- Fort Frye
- Margin error
- 16.5
Sep 11, 2026
Fairland vs. Rock Hill
- Projected
- 20–24
- Final
- 39–17
- Projected winner
- Rock Hill
- Margin error
- 27.0
Sep 11, 2026
Centerburg vs. East Knox
- Projected
- 21–23
- Final
- 21–9
- Projected winner
- East Knox
- Margin error
- 14.2
Sep 11, 2026
Buckeye Trail vs. Shenandoah
- Projected
- 15–24
- Final
- 6–44
- Projected winner
- Shenandoah
- Margin error
- 29.3
Sep 11, 2026
Belpre vs. Saint Marys
- Projected
- 19–26
- Final
- 34–24
- Projected winner
- Saint Marys
- Margin error
- 16.4
Sep 11, 2026
Woodmore vs. Marion Elgin
- Projected
- 25–24
- Final
- 41–24
- Projected winner
- Woodmore
- Margin error
- 15.8
Sep 11, 2026
Western Reserve vs. Mapleton
- Projected
- 22–21
- Final
- 56–12
- Projected winner
- Western Reserve
- Margin error
- 42.8
Sep 11, 2026
Wayne Trace vs. Ayersville
- Projected
- 24–16
- Final
- 57–15
- Projected winner
- Wayne Trace
- Margin error
- 34.3
Sep 11, 2026
Van Buren vs. Ada
- Projected
- 21–25
- Final
- 28–14
- Projected winner
- Ada
- Margin error
- 18.1
Sep 11, 2026
Tinora vs. Edgerton
- Projected
- 18–20
- Final
- 52–0
- Projected winner
- Edgerton
- Margin error
- 54.4
Sep 11, 2026
Seneca East vs. Hopewell-Loudon
- Projected
- 23–24
- Final
- 22–30
- Projected winner
- Hopewell-Loudon
- Margin error
- 6.6
Sep 11, 2026
Riverdale vs. Pandora-Gilboa
- Projected
- 20–21
- Final
- 0–38
- Projected winner
- Pandora-Gilboa
- Margin error
- 37.3
Sep 11, 2026
Paulding vs. Antwerp
- Projected
- 22–23
- Final
- 52–6
- Projected winner
- Antwerp
- Margin error
- 46.0
Sep 11, 2026
Montpelier vs. Erie Mason
- Projected
- 25–14
- Final
- 39–8
- Projected winner
- Montpelier
- Margin error
- 20.4
Sep 11, 2026
Gibsonburg vs. McComb
- Projected
- 19–23
- Final
- 0–17
- Projected winner
- McComb
- Margin error
- 13.6
Sep 11, 2026
Fairview vs. Hicksville
- Projected
- 27–13
- Final
- 55–0
- Projected winner
- Fairview
- Margin error
- 40.8
Sep 11, 2026
Ashland Crestview vs. New London
- Projected
- 15–19
- Final
- 13–48
- Projected winner
- New London
- Margin error
- 31.2
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | 24–20 | 48–0 | Arcanum | Arcanum | 44.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 23–22 | 0–39 | Anna | St. Henry | 40.5 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 20–19 | 41–7 | Adena | Adena | 32.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 24–20 | 6–15 | Worthington Christian | Newark Catholic | 12.5 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 25–18 | 44–6 | West Jefferson | West Jefferson | 30.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 20–17 | 41–8 | Northmor | Northmor | 30.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 22–21 | 18–46 | Loudonville | Mount Gilead | 28.7 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 19–26 | 7–52 | Danville | Danville | 38.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 26–22 | 20–0 | Fort Frye | Fort Frye | 16.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 20–24 | 39–17 | Rock Hill | Fairland | 27.0 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 21–23 | 21–9 | East Knox | Centerburg | 14.2 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 15–24 | 6–44 | Shenandoah | Shenandoah | 29.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 19–26 | 34–24 | Saint Marys | Belpre | 16.4 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 25–24 | 41–24 | Woodmore | Woodmore | 15.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 22–21 | 56–12 | Western Reserve | Western Reserve | 42.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 24–16 | 57–15 | Wayne Trace | Wayne Trace | 34.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 21–25 | 28–14 | Ada | Van Buren | 18.1 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 18–20 | 52–0 | Edgerton | Tinora | 54.4 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 23–24 | 22–30 | Hopewell-Loudon | Hopewell-Loudon | 6.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 20–21 | 0–38 | Pandora-Gilboa | Pandora-Gilboa | 37.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 22–23 | 52–6 | Antwerp | Paulding | 46.0 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 25–14 | 39–8 | Montpelier | Montpelier | 20.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 19–23 | 0–17 | McComb | McComb | 13.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 27–13 | 55–0 | Fairview | Fairview | 40.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 15–19 | 13–48 | New London | New London | 31.2 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
