Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Sep 11, 2026
Berne Union vs. Miller
- Projected
- 20–18
- Final
- 41–8
- Projected winner
- Berne Union
- Margin error
- 30.8
Sep 11, 2026
Vanlue vs. Toledo Christian
- Projected
- 18–19
- Final
- 0–38
- Projected winner
- Toledo Christian
- Margin error
- 37.8
Sep 11, 2026
Upper Scioto Valley vs. Ridgemont
- Projected
- 18–19
- Final
- 32–26
- Projected winner
- Ridgemont
- Margin error
- 6.9
Sep 11, 2026
North Baltimore vs. Lima Perry
- Projected
- 25–19
- Final
- 50–20
- Projected winner
- North Baltimore
- Margin error
- 23.5
Sep 11, 2026
Hilltop vs. Whiteford
- Projected
- 20–24
- Final
- 14–48
- Projected winner
- Whiteford
- Margin error
- 30.3
Sep 11, 2026
Hardin Northern vs. Ridgedale
- Projected
- 18–19
- Final
- 18–7
- Projected winner
- Ridgedale
- Margin error
- 11.3
Sep 11, 2026
Edon vs. Summerfield
- Projected
- 25–20
- Final
- 42–0
- Projected winner
- Edon
- Margin error
- 37.1
Sep 11, 2026
Convoy Crestview vs. Spencerville
- Projected
- 16–19
- Final
- 41–8
- Projected winner
- Spencerville
- Margin error
- 35.2
Sep 11, 2026
Cory-Rawson vs. Waynesfield-Goshen
- Projected
- 15–22
- Final
- 14–35
- Projected winner
- Waynesfield-Goshen
- Margin error
- 14.4
Sep 11, 2026
Arlington vs. Leipsic
- Projected
- 19–26
- Final
- 0–55
- Projected winner
- Leipsic
- Margin error
- 48.6
Sep 11, 2026
Windham vs. Holgate
- Projected
- 26–19
- Final
- 42–60
- Projected winner
- Windham
- Margin error
- 24.7
Sep 11, 2026
Salineville Southern vs. Wellsville
- Projected
- 17–20
- Final
- 34–30
- Projected winner
- Wellsville
- Margin error
- 6.2
Sep 11, 2026
Monroeville vs. South Central
- Projected
- 19–21
- Final
- 62–8
- Projected winner
- South Central
- Margin error
- 56.3
Sep 11, 2026
Warren JFK vs. Valley Christian
- Projected
- 24–14
- Final
- 51–12
- Projected winner
- Warren JFK
- Margin error
- 28.6
Sep 11, 2026
Jackson-Milton vs. Lowellville
- Projected
- 18–23
- Final
- 0–40
- Projected winner
- Lowellville
- Margin error
- 34.7
Sep 11, 2026
Crestline vs. Ashtabula St. John
- Projected
- 22–20
- Final
- 0–14
- Projected winner
- Crestline
- Margin error
- 15.6
Sep 11, 2026
Chalker vs. Sebring McKinley
- Projected
- 21–20
- Final
- 56–16
- Projected winner
- Chalker
- Margin error
- 38.6
Sep 11, 2026
Steubenville Catholic Central vs. Toronto
- Projected
- 19–24
- Final
- 6–33
- Projected winner
- Toronto
- Margin error
- 22.1
Sep 11, 2026
Springfield Northeastern vs. Southeastern Local
- Projected
- 18–17
- Final
- 6–0
- Projected winner
- Springfield Northeastern
- Margin error
- 4.7
Sep 11, 2026
National Trail vs. Mississinawa Valley
- Projected
- 22–16
- Final
- 40–0
- Projected winner
- National Trail
- Margin error
- 34.7
Sep 11, 2026
Minster vs. Parkway
- Projected
- 27–17
- Final
- 48–19
- Projected winner
- Minster
- Margin error
- 19.2
Sep 11, 2026
Fort Recovery vs. Delphos St. John's
- Projected
- 21–20
- Final
- 37–20
- Projected winner
- Fort Recovery
- Margin error
- 16.7
Sep 11, 2026
Fairbanks vs. Greeneview
- Projected
- 18–23
- Final
- 14–21
- Projected winner
- Greeneview
- Margin error
- 1.8
Sep 11, 2026
Covington vs. Miami East
- Projected
- 18–28
- Final
- 14–13
- Projected winner
- Miami East
- Margin error
- 10.7
Sep 11, 2026
Coldwater vs. New Bremen
- Projected
- 24–23
- Final
- 37–22
- Projected winner
- Coldwater
- Margin error
- 13.3
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | 20–18 | 41–8 | Berne Union | Berne Union | 30.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 18–19 | 0–38 | Toledo Christian | Toledo Christian | 37.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 18–19 | 32–26 | Ridgemont | Upper Scioto Valley | 6.9 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 25–19 | 50–20 | North Baltimore | North Baltimore | 23.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 20–24 | 14–48 | Whiteford | Whiteford | 30.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 18–19 | 18–7 | Ridgedale | Hardin Northern | 11.3 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 25–20 | 42–0 | Edon | Edon | 37.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 16–19 | 41–8 | Spencerville | Convoy Crestview | 35.2 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 15–22 | 14–35 | Waynesfield-Goshen | Waynesfield-Goshen | 14.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 19–26 | 0–55 | Leipsic | Leipsic | 48.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 26–19 | 42–60 | Windham | Holgate | 24.7 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 17–20 | 34–30 | Wellsville | Salineville Southern | 6.2 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 19–21 | 62–8 | South Central | Monroeville | 56.3 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 24–14 | 51–12 | Warren JFK | Warren JFK | 28.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 18–23 | 0–40 | Lowellville | Lowellville | 34.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 22–20 | 0–14 | Crestline | Ashtabula St. John | 15.6 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 21–20 | 56–16 | Chalker | Chalker | 38.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 19–24 | 6–33 | Toronto | Toronto | 22.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 18–17 | 6–0 | Springfield Northeastern | Springfield Northeastern | 4.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 22–16 | 40–0 | National Trail | National Trail | 34.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 27–17 | 48–19 | Minster | Minster | 19.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 21–20 | 37–20 | Fort Recovery | Fort Recovery | 16.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 18–23 | 14–21 | Greeneview | Greeneview | 1.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 18–28 | 14–13 | Miami East | Covington | 10.7 | Missed | |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 24–23 | 37–22 | Coldwater | Coldwater | 13.3 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.