Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Sep 18, 2026
Minford vs. McDermott Northwest
- Projected
- 21–15
- Final
- 21–0
- Projected winner
- Minford
- Margin error
- 14.5
Sep 18, 2026
Meigs vs. Bidwell River Valley
- Projected
- 25–16
- Final
- 49–6
- Projected winner
- Meigs
- Margin error
- 33.8
Sep 18, 2026
Coshocton vs. New Lexington
- Projected
- 17–27
- Final
- 12–46
- Projected winner
- New Lexington
- Margin error
- 23.8
Sep 18, 2026
Columbus Academy vs. Worthington Christian
- Projected
- 21–23
- Final
- 28–7
- Projected winner
- Worthington Christian
- Margin error
- 22.8
Sep 18, 2026
Chesapeake vs. Portsmouth Notre Dame
- Projected
- 21–20
- Final
- 27–0
- Projected winner
- Chesapeake
- Margin error
- 26.6
Sep 18, 2026
Bishop Ready vs. Roger Bacon
- Projected
- 23–17
- Final
- 29–13
- Projected winner
- Bishop Ready
- Margin error
- 10.9
Sep 18, 2026
Alexander vs. Wellston
- Projected
- 19–20
- Final
- 44–36
- Projected winner
- Wellston
- Margin error
- 8.2
Sep 18, 2026
Wynford vs. Hopewell-Loudon
- Projected
- 18–26
- Final
- 14–48
- Projected winner
- Hopewell-Loudon
- Margin error
- 25.6
Sep 18, 2026
Willard vs. Seneca East
- Projected
- 17–26
- Final
- 14–29
- Projected winner
- Seneca East
- Margin error
- 6.2
Sep 18, 2026
Waynedale vs. Norwayne
- Projected
- 20–21
- Final
- 13–42
- Projected winner
- Norwayne
- Margin error
- 28.4
Sep 18, 2026
Swanton vs. Delta
- Projected
- 15–29
- Final
- 0–70
- Projected winner
- Delta
- Margin error
- 57.0
Sep 18, 2026
Oak Harbor vs. Otsego
- Projected
- 23–22
- Final
- 0–60
- Projected winner
- Oak Harbor
- Margin error
- 60.6
Sep 18, 2026
WS Northwestern vs. Dalton
- Projected
- 23–20
- Final
- 6–36
- Projected winner
- WS Northwestern
- Margin error
- 33.3
Sep 18, 2026
Fairview Park vs. Cuyahoga Heights
- Projected
- 19–24
- Final
- 21–35
- Projected winner
- Cuyahoga Heights
- Margin error
- 9.1
Sep 18, 2026
Elmwood vs. Arlington
- Projected
- 24–15
- Final
- 39–14
- Projected winner
- Elmwood
- Margin error
- 15.5
Sep 18, 2026
Eastwood vs. Fostoria
- Projected
- 25–16
- Final
- 55–7
- Projected winner
- Eastwood
- Margin error
- 38.8
Sep 18, 2026
Chippewa vs. Rittman
- Projected
- 23–21
- Final
- 7–6
- Projected winner
- Chippewa
- Margin error
- 0.1
Sep 18, 2026
Waterloo vs. NM Springfield
- Projected
- 20–19
- Final
- 14–47
- Projected winner
- Waterloo
- Margin error
- 34.1
Sep 18, 2026
Sandy Valley vs. Malvern
- Projected
- 17–21
- Final
- 36–6
- Projected winner
- Malvern
- Margin error
- 34.4
Sep 18, 2026
Lutheran East vs. Warrensville Heights
- Projected
- 19–22
- Final
- 26–16
- Projected winner
- Warrensville Heights
- Margin error
- 13.0
Sep 18, 2026
Youngstown Liberty vs. Brookfield
- Projected
- 26–22
- Final
- 28–8
- Projected winner
- Youngstown Liberty
- Margin error
- 17.0
Sep 18, 2026
Harrison Central vs. Martins Ferry
- Projected
- 18–26
- Final
- 0–49
- Projected winner
- Martins Ferry
- Margin error
- 40.5
Sep 18, 2026
Richmond Edison vs. Weir
- Projected
- 17–19
- Final
- 36–6
- Projected winner
- Weir
- Margin error
- 31.5
Sep 18, 2026
Columbiana Crestview vs. Ravenna Southeast
- Projected
- 19–22
- Final
- 21–27
- Projected winner
- Ravenna Southeast
- Margin error
- 3.0
Sep 18, 2026
Conneaut vs. Kirtland
- Projected
- 23–26
- Final
- 0–48
- Projected winner
- Kirtland
- Margin error
- 44.7
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | 21–15 | 21–0 | Minford | Minford | 14.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 25–16 | 49–6 | Meigs | Meigs | 33.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 17–27 | 12–46 | New Lexington | New Lexington | 23.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 21–23 | 28–7 | Worthington Christian | Columbus Academy | 22.8 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 21–20 | 27–0 | Chesapeake | Chesapeake | 26.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 23–17 | 29–13 | Bishop Ready | Bishop Ready | 10.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 19–20 | 44–36 | Wellston | Alexander | 8.2 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 18–26 | 14–48 | Hopewell-Loudon | Hopewell-Loudon | 25.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 17–26 | 14–29 | Seneca East | Seneca East | 6.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 20–21 | 13–42 | Norwayne | Norwayne | 28.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 15–29 | 0–70 | Delta | Delta | 57.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 23–22 | 0–60 | Oak Harbor | Otsego | 60.6 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 23–20 | 6–36 | WS Northwestern | Dalton | 33.3 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 19–24 | 21–35 | Cuyahoga Heights | Cuyahoga Heights | 9.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 24–15 | 39–14 | Elmwood | Elmwood | 15.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 25–16 | 55–7 | Eastwood | Eastwood | 38.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 23–21 | 7–6 | Chippewa | Chippewa | 0.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 20–19 | 14–47 | Waterloo | NM Springfield | 34.1 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 17–21 | 36–6 | Malvern | Sandy Valley | 34.4 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 19–22 | 26–16 | Warrensville Heights | Lutheran East | 13.0 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 26–22 | 28–8 | Youngstown Liberty | Youngstown Liberty | 17.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 18–26 | 0–49 | Martins Ferry | Martins Ferry | 40.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 17–19 | 36–6 | Weir | Richmond Edison | 31.5 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 19–22 | 21–27 | Ravenna Southeast | Ravenna Southeast | 3.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 23–26 | 0–48 | Kirtland | Kirtland | 44.7 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
