Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Sep 18, 2026
Campbell Memorial vs. Lowellville
- Projected
- 19–24
- Final
- 20–30
- Projected winner
- Lowellville
- Margin error
- 4.7
Sep 18, 2026
LaBrae vs. Newton Falls
- Projected
- 21–22
- Final
- 28–13
- Projected winner
- Newton Falls
- Margin error
- 16.5
Sep 18, 2026
Hillsdale vs. Smithville
- Projected
- 22–26
- Final
- 14–28
- Projected winner
- Smithville
- Margin error
- 9.6
Sep 18, 2026
East Palestine vs. Salineville Southern
- Projected
- 21–17
- Final
- 36–12
- Projected winner
- East Palestine
- Margin error
- 20.0
Sep 18, 2026
East Canton vs. Tuscarawas Valley
- Projected
- 23–20
- Final
- 20–30
- Projected winner
- East Canton
- Margin error
- 13.9
Sep 18, 2026
Columbiana vs. Woodmore
- Projected
- 21–26
- Final
- 7–35
- Projected winner
- Woodmore
- Margin error
- 23.7
Sep 18, 2026
Black River vs. Columbia
- Projected
- 16–29
- Final
- 14–49
- Projected winner
- Columbia
- Margin error
- 22.2
Sep 18, 2026
Versailles vs. Fort Recovery
- Projected
- 17–25
- Final
- 28–21
- Projected winner
- Fort Recovery
- Margin error
- 15.0
Sep 18, 2026
Summit Country Day vs. Miami Valley CA
- Projected
- 21–23
- Final
- 47–7
- Projected winner
- Miami Valley CA
- Margin error
- 42.8
Sep 18, 2026
Preble Shawnee vs. Arcanum
- Projected
- 21–24
- Final
- 14–44
- Projected winner
- Arcanum
- Margin error
- 27.2
Sep 18, 2026
Meadowdale vs. Cincinnati College Prep
- Projected
- 13–28
- Final
- 14–38
- Projected winner
- Cincinnati College Prep
- Margin error
- 9.3
Sep 18, 2026
Madison Plains vs. Springfield Northeastern
- Projected
- 25–15
- Final
- 48–7
- Projected winner
- Madison Plains
- Margin error
- 30.7
Sep 18, 2026
Madeira vs. Reading
- Projected
- 25–17
- Final
- 38–14
- Projected winner
- Madeira
- Margin error
- 16.4
Sep 18, 2026
Greenon vs. West Liberty-Salem
- Projected
- 23–19
- Final
- 13–47
- Projected winner
- Greenon
- Margin error
- 38.5
Sep 18, 2026
Finneytown vs. Deer Park
- Projected
- 17–26
- Final
- 0–54
- Projected winner
- Deer Park
- Margin error
- 44.7
Sep 18, 2026
Clermont Northeastern vs. Cincinnati Country Day
- Projected
- 15–23
- Final
- 50–19
- Projected winner
- Cincinnati Country Day
- Margin error
- 38.1
Sep 18, 2026
Brookville vs. Middletown Madison
- Projected
- 24–16
- Final
- 48–20
- Projected winner
- Brookville
- Margin error
- 19.5
Sep 18, 2026
Zane Trace vs. Adena
- Projected
- 23–22
- Final
- 41–0
- Projected winner
- Zane Trace
- Margin error
- 41.0
Sep 18, 2026
Bethel vs. Miami East
- Projected
- 18–28
- Final
- 0–33
- Projected winner
- Miami East
- Margin error
- 23.7
Sep 18, 2026
Wheelersburg vs. Lucasville Valley
- Projected
- 23–24
- Final
- 42–0
- Projected winner
- Lucasville Valley
- Margin error
- 42.6
Sep 18, 2026
South Point vs. Rock Hill
- Projected
- 21–23
- Final
- 43–21
- Projected winner
- Rock Hill
- Margin error
- 24.8
Sep 18, 2026
WL Ridgewood vs. Buckeye Trail
- Projected
- 25–16
- Final
- 56–0
- Projected winner
- WL Ridgewood
- Margin error
- 46.8
Sep 18, 2026
Portsmouth vs. Coal Grove
- Projected
- 20–17
- Final
- 34–40
- Projected winner
- Portsmouth
- Margin error
- 8.9
Sep 18, 2026
Piketon vs. Chillicothe Huntington
- Projected
- 23–21
- Final
- 34–48
- Projected winner
- Piketon
- Margin error
- 15.9
Sep 18, 2026
Oak Hill vs. South Gallia
- Projected
- 15–20
- Final
- 8–34
- Projected winner
- South Gallia
- Margin error
- 20.1
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | 19–24 | 20–30 | Lowellville | Lowellville | 4.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 21–22 | 28–13 | Newton Falls | LaBrae | 16.5 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 22–26 | 14–28 | Smithville | Smithville | 9.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 21–17 | 36–12 | East Palestine | East Palestine | 20.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 23–20 | 20–30 | East Canton | Tuscarawas Valley | 13.9 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 21–26 | 7–35 | Woodmore | Woodmore | 23.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 16–29 | 14–49 | Columbia | Columbia | 22.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 17–25 | 28–21 | Fort Recovery | Versailles | 15.0 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 21–23 | 47–7 | Miami Valley CA | Summit Country Day | 42.8 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 21–24 | 14–44 | Arcanum | Arcanum | 27.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 13–28 | 14–38 | Cincinnati College Prep | Cincinnati College Prep | 9.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 25–15 | 48–7 | Madison Plains | Madison Plains | 30.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 25–17 | 38–14 | Madeira | Madeira | 16.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 23–19 | 13–47 | Greenon | West Liberty-Salem | 38.5 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 17–26 | 0–54 | Deer Park | Deer Park | 44.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 15–23 | 50–19 | Cincinnati Country Day | Clermont Northeastern | 38.1 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 24–16 | 48–20 | Brookville | Brookville | 19.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 23–22 | 41–0 | Zane Trace | Zane Trace | 41.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 18–28 | 0–33 | Miami East | Miami East | 23.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 23–24 | 42–0 | Lucasville Valley | Wheelersburg | 42.6 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 21–23 | 43–21 | Rock Hill | South Point | 24.8 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 25–16 | 56–0 | WL Ridgewood | WL Ridgewood | 46.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 20–17 | 34–40 | Portsmouth | Coal Grove | 8.9 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 23–21 | 34–48 | Piketon | Chillicothe Huntington | 15.9 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 15–20 | 8–34 | South Gallia | South Gallia | 20.1 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
