Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Sep 18, 2026
Fredericktown vs. Cardington-Lincoln
- Projected
- 22–17
- Final
- 34–0
- Projected winner
- Fredericktown
- Margin error
- 29.1
Sep 18, 2026
Fort Frye vs. Grandview Heights
- Projected
- 24–20
- Final
- 54–23
- Projected winner
- Fort Frye
- Margin error
- 27.5
Sep 18, 2026
Marion Elgin vs. North Baltimore
- Projected
- 23–25
- Final
- 36–46
- Projected winner
- North Baltimore
- Margin error
- 7.8
Sep 18, 2026
Centerburg vs. Northmor
- Projected
- 21–20
- Final
- 48–28
- Projected winner
- Centerburg
- Margin error
- 19.2
Sep 18, 2026
Belpre vs. Franklin Furnace Green
- Projected
- 20–19
- Final
- 46–14
- Projected winner
- Belpre
- Margin error
- 30.6
Sep 18, 2026
Western Reserve vs. Norwalk St. Paul
- Projected
- 29–14
- Final
- 53–14
- Projected winner
- Western Reserve
- Margin error
- 23.7
Sep 18, 2026
Van Buren vs. Arcadia
- Projected
- 23–21
- Final
- 14–17
- Projected winner
- Van Buren
- Margin error
- 5.2
Sep 18, 2026
Riverdale vs. McComb
- Projected
- 17–24
- Final
- 0–49
- Projected winner
- McComb
- Margin error
- 42.4
Sep 18, 2026
Paulding vs. Wayne Trace
- Projected
- 24–23
- Final
- 42–20
- Projected winner
- Paulding
- Margin error
- 21.5
Sep 18, 2026
Ottawa Hills vs. Toledo Christian
- Projected
- 22–19
- Final
- 3–28
- Projected winner
- Ottawa Hills
- Margin error
- 28.5
Sep 18, 2026
New London vs. Monroeville
- Projected
- 21–18
- Final
- 6–35
- Projected winner
- New London
- Margin error
- 32.1
Sep 18, 2026
Montpelier vs. Summerfield
- Projected
- 23–19
- Final
- 34–0
- Projected winner
- Montpelier
- Margin error
- 30.1
Sep 18, 2026
Hicksville vs. Tinora
- Projected
- 17–20
- Final
- 7–48
- Projected winner
- Tinora
- Margin error
- 37.5
Sep 18, 2026
Fairview vs. Ayersville
- Projected
- 27–14
- Final
- 42–13
- Projected winner
- Fairview
- Margin error
- 16.3
Sep 18, 2026
Ashland Crestview vs. South Central
- Projected
- 16–18
- Final
- 7–15
- Projected winner
- South Central
- Margin error
- 6.1
Sep 18, 2026
Columbus Grove vs. Spencerville
- Projected
- 23–16
- Final
- 56–0
- Projected winner
- Columbus Grove
- Margin error
- 49.1
Sep 18, 2026
Carey vs. Colonel Crawford
- Projected
- 22–23
- Final
- 16–0
- Projected winner
- Colonel Crawford
- Margin error
- 16.8
Sep 18, 2026
Bucyrus vs. Buckeye Central
- Projected
- 20–18
- Final
- 41–14
- Projected winner
- Bucyrus
- Margin error
- 25.5
Sep 18, 2026
Bluffton vs. Delphos Jefferson
- Projected
- 27–21
- Final
- 49–7
- Projected winner
- Bluffton
- Margin error
- 35.8
Sep 18, 2026
Archbold vs. Evergreen
- Projected
- 28–15
- Final
- 54–0
- Projected winner
- Archbold
- Margin error
- 41.2
Sep 18, 2026
BC Western Reserve vs. McDonald
- Projected
- 22–25
- Final
- 8–38
- Projected winner
- McDonald
- Margin error
- 27.1
Sep 18, 2026
Hanoverton United vs. David Anderson
- Projected
- 27–19
- Final
- 55–7
- Projected winner
- Hanoverton United
- Margin error
- 39.6
Sep 18, 2026
Trinity vs. Independence
- Projected
- 15–20
- Final
- 6–30
- Projected winner
- Independence
- Margin error
- 19.3
Sep 18, 2026
St. Thomas Aquinas vs. Margaretta
- Projected
- 19–23
- Final
- 6–41
- Projected winner
- Margaretta
- Margin error
- 31.5
Sep 18, 2026
Mineral Ridge vs. Jackson-Milton
- Projected
- 26–16
- Final
- 45–7
- Projected winner
- Mineral Ridge
- Margin error
- 28.0
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | 22–17 | 34–0 | Fredericktown | Fredericktown | 29.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 24–20 | 54–23 | Fort Frye | Fort Frye | 27.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 23–25 | 36–46 | North Baltimore | North Baltimore | 7.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 21–20 | 48–28 | Centerburg | Centerburg | 19.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 20–19 | 46–14 | Belpre | Belpre | 30.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 29–14 | 53–14 | Western Reserve | Western Reserve | 23.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 23–21 | 14–17 | Van Buren | Arcadia | 5.2 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 17–24 | 0–49 | McComb | McComb | 42.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 24–23 | 42–20 | Paulding | Paulding | 21.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 22–19 | 3–28 | Ottawa Hills | Toledo Christian | 28.5 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 21–18 | 6–35 | New London | Monroeville | 32.1 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 23–19 | 34–0 | Montpelier | Montpelier | 30.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 17–20 | 7–48 | Tinora | Tinora | 37.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 27–14 | 42–13 | Fairview | Fairview | 16.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 16–18 | 7–15 | South Central | South Central | 6.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 23–16 | 56–0 | Columbus Grove | Columbus Grove | 49.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 22–23 | 16–0 | Colonel Crawford | Carey | 16.8 | Missed | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 20–18 | 41–14 | Bucyrus | Bucyrus | 25.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 27–21 | 49–7 | Bluffton | Bluffton | 35.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 28–15 | 54–0 | Archbold | Archbold | 41.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 22–25 | 8–38 | McDonald | McDonald | 27.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 27–19 | 55–7 | Hanoverton United | Hanoverton United | 39.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 15–20 | 6–30 | Independence | Independence | 19.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 19–23 | 6–41 | Margaretta | Margaretta | 31.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 26–16 | 45–7 | Mineral Ridge | Mineral Ridge | 28.0 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.