Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Sep 25, 2026
London vs. Urbana
- Projected
- 21–28
- Final
- 59–18
- Projected winner
- Urbana
- Margin error
- 47.9
Sep 25, 2026
Jackson vs. Miami Trace
- Projected
- 23–24
- Final
- 20–21
- Projected winner
- Miami Trace
- Margin error
- 0.3
Sep 25, 2026
Hamilton Township vs. Circleville
- Projected
- 22–24
- Final
- 28–0
- Projected winner
- Circleville
- Margin error
- 30.6
Sep 25, 2026
Eastmoor Academy vs. Columbus South
- Projected
- 15–24
- Final
- 0–21
- Projected winner
- Columbus South
- Margin error
- 11.3
Sep 25, 2026
Chillicothe vs. McClain
- Projected
- 26–25
- Final
- 49–6
- Projected winner
- Chillicothe
- Margin error
- 42.8
Sep 25, 2026
Bishop Watterson vs. Columbus DeSales
- Projected
- 28–22
- Final
- 32–0
- Projected winner
- Bishop Watterson
- Margin error
- 26.9
Sep 25, 2026
Bellefontaine vs. Kenton Ridge
- Projected
- 14–28
- Final
- 7–41
- Projected winner
- Kenton Ridge
- Margin error
- 20.6
Sep 25, 2026
Athens vs. Vincent Warren
- Projected
- 26–17
- Final
- 40–7
- Projected winner
- Athens
- Margin error
- 23.8
Sep 25, 2026
Southview vs. Napoleon
- Projected
- 21–18
- Final
- 18–15
- Projected winner
- Southview
- Margin error
- 0.5
Sep 25, 2026
River Valley vs. Shelby
- Projected
- 14–30
- Final
- 0–54
- Projected winner
- Shelby
- Margin error
- 38.2
Sep 25, 2026
Padua Franciscan vs. Elyria Catholic
- Projected
- 20–23
- Final
- 7–14
- Projected winner
- Elyria Catholic
- Margin error
- 4.4
Sep 25, 2026
Norwalk vs. Vermilion
- Projected
- 14–25
- Final
- 0–41
- Projected winner
- Vermilion
- Margin error
- 29.3
Sep 25, 2026
Norton vs. Woodridge
- Projected
- 24–26
- Final
- 28–21
- Projected winner
- Woodridge
- Margin error
- 8.3
Sep 25, 2026
Maumee vs. Rossford
- Projected
- 19–22
- Final
- 21–33
- Projected winner
- Rossford
- Margin error
- 9.3
Sep 25, 2026
Lexington vs. Mansfield Senior
- Projected
- 20–16
- Final
- 27–32
- Projected winner
- Lexington
- Margin error
- 8.5
Sep 25, 2026
Cleveland East Tech vs. John Adams
- Projected
- 16–22
- Final
- 8–44
- Projected winner
- John Adams
- Margin error
- 29.7
Sep 25, 2026
Defiance vs. Lima Shawnee
- Projected
- 18–22
- Final
- 20–41
- Projected winner
- Lima Shawnee
- Margin error
- 16.9
Sep 25, 2026
Tiffin Columbian vs. Sandusky
- Projected
- 23–16
- Final
- 47–0
- Projected winner
- Tiffin Columbian
- Margin error
- 39.5
Sep 25, 2026
Cleveland Central Catholic vs. Richmond Heights
- Projected
- 24–22
- Final
- 55–12
- Projected winner
- Cleveland Central Catholic
- Margin error
- 41.1
Sep 25, 2026
Ashland vs. Mansfield Madison
- Projected
- 22–18
- Final
- 7–21
- Projected winner
- Ashland
- Margin error
- 17.8
Sep 25, 2026
West Geauga vs. Ashtabula Edgewood
- Projected
- 20–27
- Final
- 42–7
- Projected winner
- Ashtabula Edgewood
- Margin error
- 41.1
Sep 25, 2026
Streetsboro vs. Cloverleaf
- Projected
- 28–20
- Final
- 35–42
- Projected winner
- Streetsboro
- Margin error
- 14.7
Sep 25, 2026
Steubenville vs. Wheelersburg
- Projected
- 27–22
- Final
- 37–14
- Projected winner
- Steubenville
- Margin error
- 18.5
Sep 25, 2026
Akron St. Vincent-St. Mary vs. Cleveland VASJ
- Projected
- 14–25
- Final
- 13–41
- Projected winner
- Cleveland VASJ
- Margin error
- 17.3
Sep 25, 2026
Ravenna vs. Tallmadge
- Projected
- 22–19
- Final
- 6–31
- Projected winner
- Ravenna
- Margin error
- 27.9
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | 21–28 | 59–18 | Urbana | London | 47.9 | Missed | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 23–24 | 20–21 | Miami Trace | Miami Trace | 0.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 22–24 | 28–0 | Circleville | Hamilton Township | 30.6 | Missed | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 15–24 | 0–21 | Columbus South | Columbus South | 11.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 26–25 | 49–6 | Chillicothe | Chillicothe | 42.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 28–22 | 32–0 | Bishop Watterson | Bishop Watterson | 26.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 14–28 | 7–41 | Kenton Ridge | Kenton Ridge | 20.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 26–17 | 40–7 | Athens | Athens | 23.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 21–18 | 18–15 | Southview | Southview | 0.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 14–30 | 0–54 | Shelby | Shelby | 38.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 20–23 | 7–14 | Elyria Catholic | Elyria Catholic | 4.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 14–25 | 0–41 | Vermilion | Vermilion | 29.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 24–26 | 28–21 | Woodridge | Norton | 8.3 | Missed | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 19–22 | 21–33 | Rossford | Rossford | 9.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 20–16 | 27–32 | Lexington | Mansfield Senior | 8.5 | Missed | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 16–22 | 8–44 | John Adams | John Adams | 29.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 18–22 | 20–41 | Lima Shawnee | Lima Shawnee | 16.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 23–16 | 47–0 | Tiffin Columbian | Tiffin Columbian | 39.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 24–22 | 55–12 | Cleveland Central Catholic | Cleveland Central Catholic | 41.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 22–18 | 7–21 | Ashland | Mansfield Madison | 17.8 | Missed | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 20–27 | 42–7 | Ashtabula Edgewood | West Geauga | 41.1 | Missed | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 28–20 | 35–42 | Streetsboro | Cloverleaf | 14.7 | Missed | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 27–22 | 37–14 | Steubenville | Steubenville | 18.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 14–25 | 13–41 | Cleveland VASJ | Cleveland VASJ | 17.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 22–19 | 6–31 | Ravenna | Tallmadge | 27.9 | Missed |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.