Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Sep 25, 2026
Girard vs. Lakeview
- Projected
- 29–14
- Final
- 43–10
- Projected winner
- Girard
- Margin error
- 17.7
Sep 25, 2026
Fairless vs. Triway
- Projected
- 24–25
- Final
- 7–35
- Projected winner
- Triway
- Margin error
- 27.7
Sep 25, 2026
East Liverpool vs. Cambridge
- Projected
- 22–16
- Final
- 28–14
- Projected winner
- East Liverpool
- Margin error
- 8.7
Sep 25, 2026
Cuyahoga Valley CA vs. Mentor Lake Catholic
- Projected
- 26–17
- Final
- 13–27
- Projected winner
- Cuyahoga Valley CA
- Margin error
- 22.6
Sep 25, 2026
Chagrin Falls vs. Kirtland
- Projected
- 21–25
- Final
- 3–45
- Projected winner
- Kirtland
- Margin error
- 37.7
Sep 25, 2026
Canton South vs. Orrville
- Projected
- 13–28
- Final
- 14–41
- Projected winner
- Orrville
- Margin error
- 12.3
Sep 25, 2026
Beaver vs. Brooke
- Projected
- 25–16
- Final
- 20–33
- Projected winner
- Beaver
- Margin error
- 22.3
Sep 25, 2026
Wapakoneta vs. Van Wert
- Projected
- 19–28
- Final
- 35–13
- Projected winner
- Van Wert
- Margin error
- 30.9
Sep 25, 2026
Trotwood-Madison vs. Cathedral
- Projected
- 28–21
- Final
- 17–10
- Projected winner
- Trotwood-Madison
- Margin error
- 0.8
Sep 25, 2026
St. Marys Memorial vs. Ottawa-Glandorf
- Projected
- 22–24
- Final
- 28–46
- Projected winner
- Ottawa-Glandorf
- Margin error
- 16.3
Sep 25, 2026
New Richmond vs. Clinton-Massie
- Projected
- 22–18
- Final
- 41–37
- Projected winner
- New Richmond
- Margin error
- 0.4
Sep 25, 2026
Mount Healthy vs. Cincinnati Northwest
- Projected
- 18–23
- Final
- 20–40
- Projected winner
- Cincinnati Northwest
- Margin error
- 15.2
Sep 25, 2026
Goshen vs. Batavia
- Projected
- 26–17
- Final
- 41–0
- Projected winner
- Goshen
- Margin error
- 32.8
Sep 25, 2026
Franklin vs. Monroe
- Projected
- 14–26
- Final
- 36–45
- Projected winner
- Monroe
- Margin error
- 2.6
Sep 25, 2026
Elida vs. Lima Bath
- Projected
- 16–25
- Final
- 28–21
- Projected winner
- Lima Bath
- Margin error
- 16.4
Sep 25, 2026
Dunbar vs. Ponitz
- Projected
- 25–15
- Final
- 40–8
- Projected winner
- Dunbar
- Margin error
- 22.5
Sep 25, 2026
Celina vs. Kenton
- Projected
- 24–19
- Final
- 49–14
- Projected winner
- Celina
- Margin error
- 30.3
Sep 25, 2026
Archbishop Carroll vs. Archbishop McNicholas
- Projected
- 20–22
- Final
- 7–40
- Projected winner
- Archbishop McNicholas
- Margin error
- 31.0
Sep 25, 2026
Hamilton Badin vs. Chaminade Julienne
- Projected
- 25–16
- Final
- 34–7
- Projected winner
- Hamilton Badin
- Margin error
- 17.9
Sep 25, 2026
Archbishop Alter vs. Bishop Fenwick
- Projected
- 21–25
- Final
- 33–20
- Projected winner
- Bishop Fenwick
- Margin error
- 16.3
Sep 25, 2026
Aiken vs. Hughes
- Projected
- 15–28
- Final
- 6–44
- Projected winner
- Hughes
- Margin error
- 25.0
Sep 25, 2026
Western Brown vs. Wilmington
- Projected
- 20–22
- Final
- 42–49
- Projected winner
- Wilmington
- Margin error
- 5.5
Sep 25, 2026
Tri-Valley vs. New Lexington
- Projected
- 23–26
- Final
- 19–42
- Projected winner
- New Lexington
- Margin error
- 20.4
Sep 25, 2026
Sheridan vs. Morgan
- Projected
- 25–16
- Final
- 40–20
- Projected winner
- Sheridan
- Margin error
- 11.5
Sep 25, 2026
Marietta vs. Amanda-Clearcreek
- Projected
- 23–15
- Final
- 13–20
- Projected winner
- Marietta
- Margin error
- 14.6
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | 29–14 | 43–10 | Girard | Girard | 17.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 24–25 | 7–35 | Triway | Triway | 27.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 22–16 | 28–14 | East Liverpool | East Liverpool | 8.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 26–17 | 13–27 | Cuyahoga Valley CA | Mentor Lake Catholic | 22.6 | Missed | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 21–25 | 3–45 | Kirtland | Kirtland | 37.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 13–28 | 14–41 | Orrville | Orrville | 12.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 25–16 | 20–33 | Beaver | Brooke | 22.3 | Missed | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 19–28 | 35–13 | Van Wert | Wapakoneta | 30.9 | Missed | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 28–21 | 17–10 | Trotwood-Madison | Trotwood-Madison | 0.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 22–24 | 28–46 | Ottawa-Glandorf | Ottawa-Glandorf | 16.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 22–18 | 41–37 | New Richmond | New Richmond | 0.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 18–23 | 20–40 | Cincinnati Northwest | Cincinnati Northwest | 15.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 26–17 | 41–0 | Goshen | Goshen | 32.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 14–26 | 36–45 | Monroe | Monroe | 2.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 16–25 | 28–21 | Lima Bath | Elida | 16.4 | Missed | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 25–15 | 40–8 | Dunbar | Dunbar | 22.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 24–19 | 49–14 | Celina | Celina | 30.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 20–22 | 7–40 | Archbishop McNicholas | Archbishop McNicholas | 31.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 25–16 | 34–7 | Hamilton Badin | Hamilton Badin | 17.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 21–25 | 33–20 | Bishop Fenwick | Archbishop Alter | 16.3 | Missed | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 15–28 | 6–44 | Hughes | Hughes | 25.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 20–22 | 42–49 | Wilmington | Wilmington | 5.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 23–26 | 19–42 | New Lexington | New Lexington | 20.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 25–16 | 40–20 | Sheridan | Sheridan | 11.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 23–15 | 13–20 | Marietta | Amanda-Clearcreek | 14.6 | Missed |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
