Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Sep 25, 2026
Harvest Prep vs. Roger Bacon
- Projected
- 20–19
- Final
- 41–7
- Projected winner
- Harvest Prep
- Margin error
- 33.5
Sep 25, 2026
Chesapeake vs. Portsmouth
- Projected
- 18–19
- Final
- 3–20
- Projected winner
- Portsmouth
- Margin error
- 16.6
Sep 25, 2026
Wynford vs. Mohawk
- Projected
- 19–26
- Final
- 7–35
- Projected winner
- Mohawk
- Margin error
- 21.4
Sep 25, 2026
Willard vs. Buckeye Central
- Projected
- 19–20
- Final
- 32–0
- Projected winner
- Buckeye Central
- Margin error
- 32.0
Sep 25, 2026
Waynedale vs. Hillsdale
- Projected
- 17–24
- Final
- 7–62
- Projected winner
- Hillsdale
- Margin error
- 47.8
Sep 25, 2026
Swanton vs. Archbold
- Projected
- 15–29
- Final
- 0–72
- Projected winner
- Archbold
- Margin error
- 57.9
Sep 25, 2026
WS Northwestern vs. Smithville
- Projected
- 19–26
- Final
- 0–34
- Projected winner
- Smithville
- Margin error
- 26.9
Sep 25, 2026
Lakota vs. Margaretta
- Projected
- 22–23
- Final
- 0–7
- Projected winner
- Margaretta
- Margin error
- 6.6
Sep 25, 2026
Indian Lake vs. North Union
- Projected
- 23–24
- Final
- 7–21
- Projected winner
- North Union
- Margin error
- 13.5
Sep 25, 2026
Fostoria vs. Millbury Lake
- Projected
- 13–25
- Final
- 27–45
- Projected winner
- Millbury Lake
- Margin error
- 5.8
Sep 25, 2026
Genoa vs. Oak Harbor
- Projected
- 23–21
- Final
- 42–27
- Projected winner
- Genoa
- Margin error
- 13.5
Sep 25, 2026
Elmwood vs. Van Buren
- Projected
- 23–21
- Final
- 21–20
- Projected winner
- Elmwood
- Margin error
- 0.8
Sep 25, 2026
Eastwood vs. Otsego
- Projected
- 23–24
- Final
- 43–41
- Projected winner
- Otsego
- Margin error
- 3.4
Sep 25, 2026
Chippewa vs. Norwayne
- Projected
- 21–24
- Final
- 7–21
- Projected winner
- Norwayne
- Margin error
- 11.4
Sep 25, 2026
Waterloo vs. Mineral Ridge
- Projected
- 16–25
- Final
- 14–53
- Projected winner
- Mineral Ridge
- Margin error
- 29.6
Sep 25, 2026
Rootstown vs. Fairport Harding
- Projected
- 23–16
- Final
- 40–0
- Projected winner
- Rootstown
- Margin error
- 32.6
Sep 25, 2026
Akron Manchester vs. Tuslaw
- Projected
- 24–22
- Final
- 49–0
- Projected winner
- Akron Manchester
- Margin error
- 46.9
Sep 25, 2026
Lutheran East vs. Warren JFK
- Projected
- 16–26
- Final
- 6–25
- Projected winner
- Warren JFK
- Margin error
- 8.1
Sep 25, 2026
Youngstown Liberty vs. Newton Falls
- Projected
- 27–19
- Final
- 56–0
- Projected winner
- Youngstown Liberty
- Margin error
- 48.6
Sep 25, 2026
Harrison Central vs. Barnesville
- Projected
- 17–28
- Final
- 13–68
- Projected winner
- Barnesville
- Margin error
- 43.5
Sep 25, 2026
Garrettsville Garfield vs. Ravenna Southeast
- Projected
- 26–20
- Final
- 47–7
- Projected winner
- Garrettsville Garfield
- Margin error
- 33.3
Sep 25, 2026
Garaway vs. Tuscarawas Valley
- Projected
- 26–18
- Final
- 49–16
- Projected winner
- Garaway
- Margin error
- 25.9
Sep 25, 2026
Richmond Edison vs. Toronto
- Projected
- 18–26
- Final
- 25–40
- Projected winner
- Toronto
- Margin error
- 7.5
Sep 25, 2026
Columbiana Crestview vs. Brookfield
- Projected
- 22–23
- Final
- 6–34
- Projected winner
- Brookfield
- Margin error
- 27.7
Sep 25, 2026
Conneaut vs. Crestwood
- Projected
- 23–22
- Final
- 40–28
- Projected winner
- Conneaut
- Margin error
- 11.0
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | 20–19 | 41–7 | Harvest Prep | Harvest Prep | 33.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 18–19 | 3–20 | Portsmouth | Portsmouth | 16.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 19–26 | 7–35 | Mohawk | Mohawk | 21.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 19–20 | 32–0 | Buckeye Central | Willard | 32.0 | Missed | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 17–24 | 7–62 | Hillsdale | Hillsdale | 47.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 15–29 | 0–72 | Archbold | Archbold | 57.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 19–26 | 0–34 | Smithville | Smithville | 26.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 22–23 | 0–7 | Margaretta | Margaretta | 6.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 23–24 | 7–21 | North Union | North Union | 13.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 13–25 | 27–45 | Millbury Lake | Millbury Lake | 5.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 23–21 | 42–27 | Genoa | Genoa | 13.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 23–21 | 21–20 | Elmwood | Elmwood | 0.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 23–24 | 43–41 | Otsego | Eastwood | 3.4 | Missed | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 21–24 | 7–21 | Norwayne | Norwayne | 11.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 16–25 | 14–53 | Mineral Ridge | Mineral Ridge | 29.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 23–16 | 40–0 | Rootstown | Rootstown | 32.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 24–22 | 49–0 | Akron Manchester | Akron Manchester | 46.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 16–26 | 6–25 | Warren JFK | Warren JFK | 8.1 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 27–19 | 56–0 | Youngstown Liberty | Youngstown Liberty | 48.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 17–28 | 13–68 | Barnesville | Barnesville | 43.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 26–20 | 47–7 | Garrettsville Garfield | Garrettsville Garfield | 33.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 26–18 | 49–16 | Garaway | Garaway | 25.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 18–26 | 25–40 | Toronto | Toronto | 7.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 22–23 | 6–34 | Brookfield | Brookfield | 27.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 23–22 | 40–28 | Conneaut | Conneaut | 11.0 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
