Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Sep 25, 2026
Arlington vs. McComb
- Projected
- 18–25
- Final
- 7–42
- Projected winner
- McComb
- Margin error
- 28.2
Sep 25, 2026
Ada vs. Leipsic
- Projected
- 24–25
- Final
- 10–47
- Projected winner
- Leipsic
- Margin error
- 36.5
Sep 25, 2026
Sebring McKinley vs. Windham
- Projected
- 14–23
- Final
- 16–58
- Projected winner
- Windham
- Margin error
- 33.3
Sep 25, 2026
Mapleton vs. South Central
- Projected
- 19–17
- Final
- 40–41
- Projected winner
- Mapleton
- Margin error
- 2.7
Sep 25, 2026
Jackson-Milton vs. McDonald
- Projected
- 13–30
- Final
- 7–37
- Projected winner
- McDonald
- Margin error
- 13.2
Sep 25, 2026
Minster vs. Delphos St. John's
- Projected
- 25–17
- Final
- 38–0
- Projected winner
- Minster
- Margin error
- 29.5
Sep 25, 2026
Mechanicsburg vs. Triad
- Projected
- 25–19
- Final
- 54–0
- Projected winner
- Mechanicsburg
- Margin error
- 47.5
Sep 25, 2026
Greeneview vs. Cedarville
- Projected
- 21–19
- Final
- 32–0
- Projected winner
- Greeneview
- Margin error
- 29.9
Sep 25, 2026
Dixie vs. Tri-County North
- Projected
- 16–22
- Final
- 6–49
- Projected winner
- Tri-County North
- Margin error
- 37.3
Sep 25, 2026
Covington vs. Troy Christian
- Projected
- 17–25
- Final
- 49–7
- Projected winner
- Troy Christian
- Margin error
- 50.5
Sep 25, 2026
Coldwater vs. Parkway
- Projected
- 26–16
- Final
- 45–7
- Projected winner
- Coldwater
- Margin error
- 28.3
Sep 25, 2026
Cincinnati Country Day vs. New Miami
- Projected
- 22–14
- Final
- 26–0
- Projected winner
- Cincinnati Country Day
- Margin error
- 18.0
Sep 25, 2026
Arcanum vs. National Trail
- Projected
- 24–22
- Final
- 42–0
- Projected winner
- Arcanum
- Margin error
- 39.8
Sep 25, 2026
Anna vs. Fort Recovery
- Projected
- 21–22
- Final
- 29–28
- Projected winner
- Fort Recovery
- Margin error
- 1.5
Sep 25, 2026
Allen East vs. Convoy Crestview
- Projected
- 25–18
- Final
- 41–0
- Projected winner
- Allen East
- Margin error
- 34.0
Sep 25, 2026
Worthington Christian vs. Berne Union
- Projected
- 20–25
- Final
- 56–17
- Projected winner
- Berne Union
- Margin error
- 44.3
Sep 25, 2026
West Jefferson vs. Springfield Northeastern
- Projected
- 26–15
- Final
- 47–12
- Projected winner
- West Jefferson
- Margin error
- 24.0
Sep 25, 2026
Chillicothe Southeastern vs. Chillicothe Huntington
- Projected
- 20–25
- Final
- 24–47
- Projected winner
- Chillicothe Huntington
- Margin error
- 18.3
Sep 25, 2026
Shenandoah vs. Shadyside
- Projected
- 22–27
- Final
- 14–42
- Projected winner
- Shadyside
- Margin error
- 23.4
Sep 25, 2026
Northmor vs. Danville
- Projected
- 19–26
- Final
- 7–57
- Projected winner
- Danville
- Margin error
- 43.5
Sep 25, 2026
Newcomerstown vs. Malvern
- Projected
- 23–18
- Final
- 36–0
- Projected winner
- Newcomerstown
- Margin error
- 30.9
Sep 25, 2026
KIPP Columbus vs. Cincinnati College Prep
- Projected
- 13–27
- Final
- 8–30
- Projected winner
- Cincinnati College Prep
- Margin error
- 7.6
Sep 25, 2026
Fredericktown vs. Mount Gilead
- Projected
- 20–23
- Final
- 21–12
- Projected winner
- Mount Gilead
- Margin error
- 12.3
Sep 25, 2026
Fort Frye vs. Caldwell
- Projected
- 28–15
- Final
- 38–7
- Projected winner
- Fort Frye
- Margin error
- 17.7
Sep 25, 2026
Marion Elgin vs. Upper Scioto Valley
- Projected
- 28–16
- Final
- 38–22
- Projected winner
- Marion Elgin
- Margin error
- 4.1
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | 18–25 | 7–42 | McComb | McComb | 28.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 24–25 | 10–47 | Leipsic | Leipsic | 36.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 14–23 | 16–58 | Windham | Windham | 33.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 19–17 | 40–41 | Mapleton | South Central | 2.7 | Missed | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 13–30 | 7–37 | McDonald | McDonald | 13.2 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 25–17 | 38–0 | Minster | Minster | 29.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 25–19 | 54–0 | Mechanicsburg | Mechanicsburg | 47.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 21–19 | 32–0 | Greeneview | Greeneview | 29.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 16–22 | 6–49 | Tri-County North | Tri-County North | 37.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 17–25 | 49–7 | Troy Christian | Covington | 50.5 | Missed | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 26–16 | 45–7 | Coldwater | Coldwater | 28.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 22–14 | 26–0 | Cincinnati Country Day | Cincinnati Country Day | 18.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 24–22 | 42–0 | Arcanum | Arcanum | 39.8 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 21–22 | 29–28 | Fort Recovery | Anna | 1.5 | Missed | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 25–18 | 41–0 | Allen East | Allen East | 34.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 20–25 | 56–17 | Berne Union | Worthington Christian | 44.3 | Missed | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 26–15 | 47–12 | West Jefferson | West Jefferson | 24.0 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 20–25 | 24–47 | Chillicothe Huntington | Chillicothe Huntington | 18.3 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 22–27 | 14–42 | Shadyside | Shadyside | 23.4 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 19–26 | 7–57 | Danville | Danville | 43.5 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 23–18 | 36–0 | Newcomerstown | Newcomerstown | 30.9 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 13–27 | 8–30 | Cincinnati College Prep | Cincinnati College Prep | 7.6 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 20–23 | 21–12 | Mount Gilead | Fredericktown | 12.3 | Missed | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 28–15 | 38–7 | Fort Frye | Fort Frye | 17.7 | Correct | |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 28–16 | 38–22 | Marion Elgin | Marion Elgin | 4.1 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
