Games evaluated
351
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Aug 29, 2026
Accuracy calculated Aug 31, 2026 9:52 AM EDT
Performance summary
351 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
61.0%
214 correct
Average margin error
23.3
Lower is better
Average score error
13.4
Per-team points
Brier score
0.229
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
10.8%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 351
- Winner accuracy
- 61.0%
- Margin error
- 23.3
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–19% | 13 | 17.5% | 23.1% | +5.6 | 0.191 |
| 20–29% | 32 | 26.6% | 25.0% | -1.6 | 0.190 |
| 30–39% | 53 | 35.0% | 37.7% | +2.7 | 0.230 |
| 40–49% | 96 | 45.6% | 49.0% | +3.3 | 0.249 |
| 50–59% | 54 | 55.1% | 51.9% | -3.2 | 0.256 |
| 60–69% | 51 | 65.0% | 62.7% | -2.2 | 0.232 |
| 70–79% | 45 | 74.6% | 73.3% | -1.2 | 0.192 |
| 80–89% | 7 | 82.9% | 71.4% | -11.4 | 0.213 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 252 | 55.6% | 22.8 points |
| Medium | 21 | 76.2% | 21.5 points |
| Low | 78 | 74.4% | 25.2 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 points |
| Close Game | 273 | 57.5% | 23.1 points |
| Upset Possible | 253 | 55.7% | 22.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | Warrensville Heights vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–20 | 57–0 | 59.2 points |
| Aug 28, 2026 | West Clermont vs. Anderson | 24–17 | 19–70 | 58.8 points |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Ross vs. Thurgood Marshall | 19–20 | 57–0 | 57.4 points |
| Aug 29, 2026 | John Marshall vs. Rocky River | 17–24 | 0–63 | 56.8 points |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Wayne Trace vs. Spencerville | 18–19 | 55–0 | 56.2 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Aug 28, 2026
Shenandoah vs. Bridgeport
- Projected
- 23–19
- Final
- 49–18
- Projected winner
- Shenandoah
- Margin error
- 26.2
Aug 28, 2026
Newcomerstown vs. Toronto
- Projected
- 24–21
- Final
- 20–27
- Projected winner
- Newcomerstown
- Margin error
- 9.9
Aug 28, 2026
Fredericktown vs. Johnstown Northridge
- Projected
- 19–22
- Final
- 21–0
- Projected winner
- Johnstown Northridge
- Margin error
- 23.9
Aug 28, 2026
Fairland vs. Point Pleasant
- Projected
- 18–19
- Final
- 33–7
- Projected winner
- Point Pleasant
- Margin error
- 27.6
Aug 28, 2026
Marion Elgin vs. Ridgedale
- Projected
- 25–17
- Final
- 54–6
- Projected winner
- Marion Elgin
- Margin error
- 39.9
Aug 28, 2026
Coal Grove vs. Adena
- Projected
- 18–20
- Final
- 8–12
- Projected winner
- Adena
- Margin error
- 1.2
Aug 28, 2026
Buckeye Trail vs. Crooksville
- Projected
- 17–22
- Final
- 6–35
- Projected winner
- Crooksville
- Margin error
- 24.3
Aug 28, 2026
Belpre vs. Sciotoville East
- Projected
- 23–17
- Final
- 49–0
- Projected winner
- Belpre
- Margin error
- 43.5
Aug 28, 2026
Woodmore vs. Toledo Christian
- Projected
- 25–21
- Final
- 49–6
- Projected winner
- Woodmore
- Margin error
- 39.3
Aug 28, 2026
Wayne Trace vs. Spencerville
- Projected
- 18–19
- Final
- 55–0
- Projected winner
- Spencerville
- Margin error
- 56.2
Aug 28, 2026
Van Buren vs. Arlington
- Projected
- 25–17
- Final
- 55–12
- Projected winner
- Van Buren
- Margin error
- 34.9
Aug 28, 2026
Seneca East vs. Monroeville
- Projected
- 26–16
- Final
- 28–12
- Projected winner
- Seneca East
- Margin error
- 6.6
Aug 28, 2026
Paulding vs. North Central
- Projected
- 24–19
- Final
- 46–0
- Projected winner
- Paulding
- Margin error
- 40.8
Aug 28, 2026
New London vs. Loudonville
- Projected
- 18–23
- Final
- 13–55
- Projected winner
- Loudonville
- Margin error
- 37.4
Aug 28, 2026
Margaretta vs. Western Reserve
- Projected
- 21–23
- Final
- 7–26
- Projected winner
- Western Reserve
- Margin error
- 16.9
Aug 28, 2026
Evergreen vs. Ottawa Hills
- Projected
- 15–29
- Final
- 15–20
- Projected winner
- Ottawa Hills
- Margin error
- 8.1
Aug 28, 2026
Delta vs. Fairview
- Projected
- 22–24
- Final
- 43–30
- Projected winner
- Fairview
- Margin error
- 15.2
Aug 28, 2026
Ashland Crestview vs. Crestline
- Projected
- 21–17
- Final
- 16–28
- Projected winner
- Ashland Crestview
- Margin error
- 16.3
Aug 28, 2026
Bucyrus vs. Riverdale
- Projected
- 17–24
- Final
- 27–20
- Projected winner
- Riverdale
- Margin error
- 13.6
Aug 28, 2026
Archbold vs. St. Henry
- Projected
- 22–21
- Final
- 41–15
- Projected winner
- Archbold
- Margin error
- 25.3
Aug 28, 2026
Wickliffe vs. Richmond Heights
- Projected
- 24–23
- Final
- 28–8
- Projected winner
- Wickliffe
- Margin error
- 19.0
Aug 28, 2026
Wellington vs. Mapleton
- Projected
- 18–20
- Final
- 22–40
- Projected winner
- Mapleton
- Margin error
- 16.1
Aug 28, 2026
St. Thomas Aquinas vs. Wellsville
- Projected
- 20–19
- Final
- 19–8
- Projected winner
- St. Thomas Aquinas
- Margin error
- 10.7
Aug 28, 2026
Smithville vs. Northmor
- Projected
- 24–18
- Final
- 59–15
- Projected winner
- Smithville
- Margin error
- 38.7
Aug 28, 2026
Newton Falls vs. Jackson-Milton
- Projected
- 25–19
- Final
- 35–0
- Projected winner
- Newton Falls
- Margin error
- 29.1
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2026 | 23–19 | 49–18 | Shenandoah | Shenandoah | 26.2 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 24–21 | 20–27 | Newcomerstown | Toronto | 9.9 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 19–22 | 21–0 | Johnstown Northridge | Fredericktown | 23.9 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 18–19 | 33–7 | Point Pleasant | Fairland | 27.6 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 25–17 | 54–6 | Marion Elgin | Marion Elgin | 39.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 18–20 | 8–12 | Adena | Adena | 1.2 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 17–22 | 6–35 | Crooksville | Crooksville | 24.3 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 23–17 | 49–0 | Belpre | Belpre | 43.5 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 25–21 | 49–6 | Woodmore | Woodmore | 39.3 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 18–19 | 55–0 | Spencerville | Wayne Trace | 56.2 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 25–17 | 55–12 | Van Buren | Van Buren | 34.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 26–16 | 28–12 | Seneca East | Seneca East | 6.6 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 24–19 | 46–0 | Paulding | Paulding | 40.8 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 18–23 | 13–55 | Loudonville | Loudonville | 37.4 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 21–23 | 7–26 | Western Reserve | Western Reserve | 16.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 15–29 | 15–20 | Ottawa Hills | Ottawa Hills | 8.1 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 22–24 | 43–30 | Fairview | Delta | 15.2 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 21–17 | 16–28 | Ashland Crestview | Crestline | 16.3 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 17–24 | 27–20 | Riverdale | Bucyrus | 13.6 | Missed | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 22–21 | 41–15 | Archbold | Archbold | 25.3 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 24–23 | 28–8 | Wickliffe | Wickliffe | 19.0 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 18–20 | 22–40 | Mapleton | Mapleton | 16.1 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 20–19 | 19–8 | St. Thomas Aquinas | St. Thomas Aquinas | 10.7 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 24–18 | 59–15 | Smithville | Smithville | 38.7 | Correct | |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 25–19 | 35–0 | Newton Falls | Newton Falls | 29.1 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
