Games evaluated
3,178
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 16, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 17, 2026 8:01 AM EDT
Performance summary
3,178 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
69.8%
2,217 correct
Average margin error
22.3
Lower is better
Average score error
13.1
Per-team points
Brier score
0.197
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.5%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 3,178
- Winner accuracy
- 69.8%
- Margin error
- 22.3
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 340 | 79.7% | 20.5 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 21 | 8.4% | 4.8% | -3.7 | 0.045 |
| 10–19% | 209 | 15.8% | 8.6% | -7.2 | 0.084 |
| 20–29% | 351 | 25.4% | 21.1% | -4.3 | 0.168 |
| 30–39% | 487 | 35.1% | 33.5% | -1.6 | 0.222 |
| 40–49% | 608 | 45.1% | 43.1% | -2.0 | 0.244 |
| 50–59% | 533 | 54.9% | 57.4% | +2.6 | 0.246 |
| 60–69% | 439 | 64.8% | 71.5% | +6.7 | 0.204 |
| 70–79% | 356 | 74.8% | 80.6% | +5.9 | 0.158 |
| 80–89% | 157 | 84.1% | 88.5% | +4.4 | 0.101 |
| 90–99% | 17 | 91.6% | 94.1% | +2.5 | 0.057 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,686 | 70.7% | 22.2 points |
| Medium | 49 | 87.8% | 23.3 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,516 | 62.3% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,217 | 63.5% | 22.1 points |
| Upset Possible | 2,064 | 62.4% | 21.9 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Springfield Northwestern vs. Benjamin Logan | 15–25 | 0–78 | 68.5 points |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Trimble vs. Waterford | 21–24 | 0–69 | 65.9 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Aug 21, 2026
Rittman vs. Cleveland JFK
- Projected
- 21–15
- Final
- 52–0
- Projected winner
- Rittman
- Margin error
- 46.3
Aug 21, 2026
Newton Falls vs. Wellsville
- Projected
- 16–17
- Final
- 56–13
- Projected winner
- Wellsville
- Margin error
- 44.3
Aug 21, 2026
Mineral Ridge vs. Pymatuning Valley
- Projected
- 24–25
- Final
- 42–7
- Projected winner
- Pymatuning Valley
- Margin error
- 36.9
Aug 21, 2026
East Palestine vs. Shadyside
- Projected
- 24–15
- Final
- 13–49
- Projected winner
- East Palestine
- Margin error
- 44.3
Aug 21, 2026
Columbiana vs. Lowellville
- Projected
- 18–25
- Final
- 27–24
- Projected winner
- Lowellville
- Margin error
- 10.4
Aug 21, 2026
Columbia vs. Independence
- Projected
- 24–19
- Final
- 56–7
- Projected winner
- Columbia
- Margin error
- 44.1
Aug 21, 2026
Black River vs. Hillsdale
- Projected
- 23–25
- Final
- 20–34
- Projected winner
- Hillsdale
- Margin error
- 11.9
Aug 21, 2026
Summit Country Day vs. Cincinnati Country Day
- Projected
- 18–27
- Final
- 26–30
- Projected winner
- Cincinnati Country Day
- Margin error
- 4.5
Aug 21, 2026
Middletown Madison vs. Preble Shawnee
- Projected
- 18–25
- Final
- 13–20
- Projected winner
- Preble Shawnee
- Margin error
- 0.5
Aug 21, 2026
Greenon vs. Springfield Shawnee
- Projected
- 23–15
- Final
- 13–12
- Projected winner
- Greenon
- Margin error
- 7.2
Aug 21, 2026
East Clinton vs. Miami Valley CA
- Projected
- 18–19
- Final
- 0–40
- Projected winner
- Miami Valley CA
- Margin error
- 39.1
Aug 21, 2026
Clermont Northeastern vs. Mariemont
- Projected
- 23–17
- Final
- 0–33
- Projected winner
- Clermont Northeastern
- Margin error
- 38.8
Aug 21, 2026
Brookville vs. Parkway
- Projected
- 24–17
- Final
- 14–27
- Projected winner
- Brookville
- Margin error
- 20.1
Aug 21, 2026
Blanchester vs. Greeneview
- Projected
- 26–17
- Final
- 28–35
- Projected winner
- Blanchester
- Margin error
- 17.0
Aug 21, 2026
Bethel vs. Tri-Village
- Projected
- 17–27
- Final
- 3–21
- Projected winner
- Tri-Village
- Margin error
- 7.9
Aug 21, 2026
Westfall vs. Madison Plains
- Projected
- 25–16
- Final
- 6–39
- Projected winner
- Westfall
- Margin error
- 41.8
Aug 21, 2026
Utica vs. Centerburg
- Projected
- 17–29
- Final
- 14–35
- Projected winner
- Centerburg
- Margin error
- 9.3
Aug 21, 2026
South Point vs. Beaver Eastern
- Projected
- 14–29
- Final
- 30–27
- Projected winner
- Beaver Eastern
- Margin error
- 18.4
Aug 21, 2026
WL Ridgewood vs. Fort Frye
- Projected
- 26–25
- Final
- 14–19
- Projected winner
- WL Ridgewood
- Margin error
- 5.8
Aug 21, 2026
Bidwell River Valley vs. Berne Union
- Projected
- 19–18
- Final
- 6–40
- Projected winner
- Bidwell River Valley
- Margin error
- 34.3
Aug 21, 2026
Portsmouth West vs. Fairland
- Projected
- 20–22
- Final
- 19–13
- Projected winner
- Fairland
- Margin error
- 7.9
Aug 21, 2026
Portsmouth vs. Wheelersburg
- Projected
- 21–28
- Final
- 0–63
- Projected winner
- Wheelersburg
- Margin error
- 56.0
Aug 21, 2026
Oak Hill vs. Wellston
- Projected
- 19–15
- Final
- 6–35
- Projected winner
- Oak Hill
- Margin error
- 33.4
Aug 21, 2026
Minford vs. Rock Hill
- Projected
- 14–23
- Final
- 20–49
- Projected winner
- Rock Hill
- Margin error
- 20.6
Aug 21, 2026
Liberty Union vs. Monroe Central
- Projected
- 18–24
- Final
- 12–33
- Projected winner
- Monroe Central
- Margin error
- 15.5
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | 21–15 | 52–0 | Rittman | Rittman | 46.3 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 16–17 | 56–13 | Wellsville | Newton Falls | 44.3 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 24–25 | 42–7 | Pymatuning Valley | Mineral Ridge | 36.9 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 24–15 | 13–49 | East Palestine | Shadyside | 44.3 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 18–25 | 27–24 | Lowellville | Columbiana | 10.4 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 24–19 | 56–7 | Columbia | Columbia | 44.1 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 23–25 | 20–34 | Hillsdale | Hillsdale | 11.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 18–27 | 26–30 | Cincinnati Country Day | Cincinnati Country Day | 4.5 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 18–25 | 13–20 | Preble Shawnee | Preble Shawnee | 0.5 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 23–15 | 13–12 | Greenon | Greenon | 7.2 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 18–19 | 0–40 | Miami Valley CA | Miami Valley CA | 39.1 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 23–17 | 0–33 | Clermont Northeastern | Mariemont | 38.8 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 24–17 | 14–27 | Brookville | Parkway | 20.1 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 26–17 | 28–35 | Blanchester | Greeneview | 17.0 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 17–27 | 3–21 | Tri-Village | Tri-Village | 7.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 25–16 | 6–39 | Westfall | Madison Plains | 41.8 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 17–29 | 14–35 | Centerburg | Centerburg | 9.3 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 14–29 | 30–27 | Beaver Eastern | South Point | 18.4 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 26–25 | 14–19 | WL Ridgewood | Fort Frye | 5.8 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 19–18 | 6–40 | Bidwell River Valley | Berne Union | 34.3 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 20–22 | 19–13 | Fairland | Portsmouth West | 7.9 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 21–28 | 0–63 | Wheelersburg | Wheelersburg | 56.0 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 19–15 | 6–35 | Oak Hill | Wellston | 33.4 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 14–23 | 20–49 | Rock Hill | Rock Hill | 20.6 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 18–24 | 12–33 | Monroe Central | Monroe Central | 15.5 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
