Games evaluated
3,178
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 16, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 17, 2026 8:01 AM EDT
Performance summary
3,178 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
69.8%
2,217 correct
Average margin error
22.3
Lower is better
Average score error
13.1
Per-team points
Brier score
0.197
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.5%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 3,178
- Winner accuracy
- 69.8%
- Margin error
- 22.3
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 340 | 79.7% | 20.5 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 21 | 8.4% | 4.8% | -3.7 | 0.045 |
| 10–19% | 209 | 15.8% | 8.6% | -7.2 | 0.084 |
| 20–29% | 351 | 25.4% | 21.1% | -4.3 | 0.168 |
| 30–39% | 487 | 35.1% | 33.5% | -1.6 | 0.222 |
| 40–49% | 608 | 45.1% | 43.1% | -2.0 | 0.244 |
| 50–59% | 533 | 54.9% | 57.4% | +2.6 | 0.246 |
| 60–69% | 439 | 64.8% | 71.5% | +6.7 | 0.204 |
| 70–79% | 356 | 74.8% | 80.6% | +5.9 | 0.158 |
| 80–89% | 157 | 84.1% | 88.5% | +4.4 | 0.101 |
| 90–99% | 17 | 91.6% | 94.1% | +2.5 | 0.057 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,686 | 70.7% | 22.2 points |
| Medium | 49 | 87.8% | 23.3 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,516 | 62.3% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,217 | 63.5% | 22.1 points |
| Upset Possible | 2,064 | 62.4% | 21.9 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Springfield Northwestern vs. Benjamin Logan | 15–25 | 0–78 | 68.5 points |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Trimble vs. Waterford | 21–24 | 0–69 | 65.9 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Aug 21, 2026
Shenandoah vs. Bishop Rosecrans
- Projected
- 18–23
- Final
- 46–0
- Projected winner
- Bishop Rosecrans
- Margin error
- 50.0
Aug 21, 2026
Johnstown Northridge vs. East Knox
- Projected
- 19–18
- Final
- 14–19
- Projected winner
- Johnstown Northridge
- Margin error
- 5.5
Aug 21, 2026
Nelsonville-York vs. Trimble
- Projected
- 27–20
- Final
- 40–6
- Projected winner
- Nelsonville-York
- Margin error
- 27.5
Aug 21, 2026
Loudonville vs. Mapleton
- Projected
- 16–20
- Final
- 41–14
- Projected winner
- Mapleton
- Margin error
- 30.4
Aug 21, 2026
Marion Elgin vs. Arlington
- Projected
- 18–25
- Final
- 29–8
- Projected winner
- Arlington
- Margin error
- 28.5
Aug 21, 2026
Coal Grove vs. Russell
- Projected
- 26–22
- Final
- 0–34
- Projected winner
- Coal Grove
- Margin error
- 38.3
Aug 21, 2026
Crooksville vs. Newcomerstown
- Projected
- 22–23
- Final
- 20–32
- Projected winner
- Newcomerstown
- Margin error
- 11.3
Aug 21, 2026
Buckeye Trail vs. Caldwell
- Projected
- 23–20
- Final
- 0–28
- Projected winner
- Buckeye Trail
- Margin error
- 30.6
Aug 21, 2026
Belpre vs. Fisher Catholic
- Projected
- 17–22
- Final
- 19–28
- Projected winner
- Fisher Catholic
- Margin error
- 4.5
Aug 21, 2026
Wayne Trace vs. New Bremen
- Projected
- 19–23
- Final
- 0–35
- Projected winner
- New Bremen
- Margin error
- 31.3
Aug 21, 2026
Riverdale vs. Ridgemont
- Projected
- 15–24
- Final
- 30–6
- Projected winner
- Ridgemont
- Margin error
- 33.2
Aug 21, 2026
Paulding vs. Convoy Crestview
- Projected
- 22–23
- Final
- 18–6
- Projected winner
- Convoy Crestview
- Margin error
- 13.8
Aug 21, 2026
Ottawa Hills vs. Vanlue
- Projected
- 20–16
- Final
- 62–8
- Projected winner
- Ottawa Hills
- Margin error
- 49.5
Aug 21, 2026
New London vs. Woodmore
- Projected
- 17–23
- Final
- 7–61
- Projected winner
- Woodmore
- Margin error
- 47.7
Aug 21, 2026
Margaretta vs. Mohawk
- Projected
- 27–22
- Final
- 30–20
- Projected winner
- Margaretta
- Margin error
- 4.9
Aug 21, 2026
Hicksville vs. Hilltop
- Projected
- 17–16
- Final
- 7–12
- Projected winner
- Hicksville
- Margin error
- 5.6
Aug 21, 2026
Liberty Center vs. Tinora
- Projected
- 31–17
- Final
- 61–0
- Projected winner
- Liberty Center
- Margin error
- 46.6
Aug 21, 2026
Gibsonburg vs. Seneca East
- Projected
- 23–27
- Final
- 26–44
- Projected winner
- Seneca East
- Margin error
- 14.0
Aug 21, 2026
Evergreen vs. Delphos Jefferson
- Projected
- 21–15
- Final
- 6–34
- Projected winner
- Evergreen
- Margin error
- 33.9
Aug 21, 2026
Delta vs. Ayersville
- Projected
- 22–20
- Final
- 47–0
- Projected winner
- Delta
- Margin error
- 45.3
Aug 21, 2026
Bucyrus vs. North Baltimore
- Projected
- 17–23
- Final
- 12–44
- Projected winner
- North Baltimore
- Margin error
- 26.0
Aug 21, 2026
Carey vs. Marion Local
- Projected
- 23–28
- Final
- 7–34
- Projected winner
- Marion Local
- Margin error
- 21.5
Aug 21, 2026
Wellington vs. Western Reserve
- Projected
- 19–24
- Final
- 7–45
- Projected winner
- Western Reserve
- Margin error
- 33.2
Aug 21, 2026
Trinity vs. Malvern
- Projected
- 17–25
- Final
- 20–24
- Projected winner
- Malvern
- Margin error
- 3.8
Aug 21, 2026
St. Thomas Aquinas vs. Strasburg-Franklin
- Projected
- 17–21
- Final
- 14–43
- Projected winner
- Strasburg-Franklin
- Margin error
- 26.0
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | 18–23 | 46–0 | Bishop Rosecrans | Shenandoah | 50.0 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 19–18 | 14–19 | Johnstown Northridge | East Knox | 5.5 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 27–20 | 40–6 | Nelsonville-York | Nelsonville-York | 27.5 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 16–20 | 41–14 | Mapleton | Loudonville | 30.4 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 18–25 | 29–8 | Arlington | Marion Elgin | 28.5 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 26–22 | 0–34 | Coal Grove | Russell | 38.3 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 22–23 | 20–32 | Newcomerstown | Newcomerstown | 11.3 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 23–20 | 0–28 | Buckeye Trail | Caldwell | 30.6 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 17–22 | 19–28 | Fisher Catholic | Fisher Catholic | 4.5 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 19–23 | 0–35 | New Bremen | New Bremen | 31.3 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 15–24 | 30–6 | Ridgemont | Riverdale | 33.2 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 22–23 | 18–6 | Convoy Crestview | Paulding | 13.8 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 20–16 | 62–8 | Ottawa Hills | Ottawa Hills | 49.5 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 17–23 | 7–61 | Woodmore | Woodmore | 47.7 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 27–22 | 30–20 | Margaretta | Margaretta | 4.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 17–16 | 7–12 | Hicksville | Hilltop | 5.6 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 31–17 | 61–0 | Liberty Center | Liberty Center | 46.6 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 23–27 | 26–44 | Seneca East | Seneca East | 14.0 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 21–15 | 6–34 | Evergreen | Delphos Jefferson | 33.9 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 22–20 | 47–0 | Delta | Delta | 45.3 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 17–23 | 12–44 | North Baltimore | North Baltimore | 26.0 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 23–28 | 7–34 | Marion Local | Marion Local | 21.5 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 19–24 | 7–45 | Western Reserve | Western Reserve | 33.2 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 17–25 | 20–24 | Malvern | Malvern | 3.8 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 17–21 | 14–43 | Strasburg-Franklin | Strasburg-Franklin | 26.0 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
