Games evaluated
3,178
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 16, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 17, 2026 8:01 AM EDT
Performance summary
3,178 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
69.8%
2,217 correct
Average margin error
22.3
Lower is better
Average score error
13.1
Per-team points
Brier score
0.197
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.5%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 3,178
- Winner accuracy
- 69.8%
- Margin error
- 22.3
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 340 | 79.7% | 20.5 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 21 | 8.4% | 4.8% | -3.7 | 0.045 |
| 10–19% | 209 | 15.8% | 8.6% | -7.2 | 0.084 |
| 20–29% | 351 | 25.4% | 21.1% | -4.3 | 0.168 |
| 30–39% | 487 | 35.1% | 33.5% | -1.6 | 0.222 |
| 40–49% | 608 | 45.1% | 43.1% | -2.0 | 0.244 |
| 50–59% | 533 | 54.9% | 57.4% | +2.6 | 0.246 |
| 60–69% | 439 | 64.8% | 71.5% | +6.7 | 0.204 |
| 70–79% | 356 | 74.8% | 80.6% | +5.9 | 0.158 |
| 80–89% | 157 | 84.1% | 88.5% | +4.4 | 0.101 |
| 90–99% | 17 | 91.6% | 94.1% | +2.5 | 0.057 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,686 | 70.7% | 22.2 points |
| Medium | 49 | 87.8% | 23.3 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,516 | 62.3% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,217 | 63.5% | 22.1 points |
| Upset Possible | 2,064 | 62.4% | 21.9 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Springfield Northwestern vs. Benjamin Logan | 15–25 | 0–78 | 68.5 points |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Trimble vs. Waterford | 21–24 | 0–69 | 65.9 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Aug 21, 2026
Ansonia vs. Riverside
- Projected
- 25–21
- Final
- 32–8
- Projected winner
- Ansonia
- Margin error
- 19.6
Aug 21, 2026
South Gallia vs. Racine Southern
- Projected
- 22–20
- Final
- 32–30
- Projected winner
- South Gallia
- Margin error
- 0.7
Aug 21, 2026
Millersport vs. Sciotoville East
- Projected
- 19–15
- Final
- 14–0
- Projected winner
- Millersport
- Margin error
- 10.8
Aug 21, 2026
Waynesfield-Goshen vs. Mississinawa Valley
- Projected
- 20–19
- Final
- 32–0
- Projected winner
- Waynesfield-Goshen
- Margin error
- 31.0
Aug 21, 2026
Hardin Northern vs. Toledo Christian
- Projected
- 19–20
- Final
- 6–26
- Projected winner
- Toledo Christian
- Margin error
- 19.1
Aug 21, 2026
Edgerton vs. Edon
- Projected
- 24–22
- Final
- 7–40
- Projected winner
- Edgerton
- Margin error
- 34.8
Aug 21, 2026
Arcadia vs. Cory-Rawson
- Projected
- 15–18
- Final
- 41–14
- Projected winner
- Cory-Rawson
- Margin error
- 30.8
Aug 21, 2026
Ada vs. Upper Scioto Valley
- Projected
- 18–25
- Final
- 30–0
- Projected winner
- Upper Scioto Valley
- Margin error
- 36.6
Aug 21, 2026
Salineville Southern vs. Toronto
- Projected
- 17–26
- Final
- 0–33
- Projected winner
- Toronto
- Margin error
- 23.2
Aug 21, 2026
Sebring McKinley vs. Kennedy Catholic
- Projected
- 19–18
- Final
- 22–38
- Projected winner
- Sebring McKinley
- Margin error
- 17.4
Aug 21, 2026
Monroeville vs. McComb
- Projected
- 23–26
- Final
- 14–48
- Projected winner
- McComb
- Margin error
- 31.8
Aug 21, 2026
Dalton vs. Danville
- Projected
- 24–23
- Final
- 12–48
- Projected winner
- Dalton
- Margin error
- 36.2
Aug 21, 2026
Buckeye Central vs. Crestline
- Projected
- 20–16
- Final
- 35–7
- Projected winner
- Buckeye Central
- Margin error
- 24.6
Aug 21, 2026
Triad vs. Ridgedale
- Projected
- 18–19
- Final
- 40–2
- Projected winner
- Ridgedale
- Margin error
- 38.4
Aug 21, 2026
National Trail vs. Springfield Catholic Central
- Projected
- 22–16
- Final
- 53–8
- Projected winner
- National Trail
- Margin error
- 39.0
Aug 21, 2026
Minster vs. Fort Loramie
- Projected
- 18–25
- Final
- 27–17
- Projected winner
- Fort Loramie
- Margin error
- 17.1
Aug 21, 2026
Chillicothe Huntington vs. Newark Catholic
- Projected
- 21–18
- Final
- 27–28
- Projected winner
- Chillicothe Huntington
- Margin error
- 4.0
Aug 21, 2026
Dixie vs. New Miami
- Projected
- 17–16
- Final
- 28–0
- Projected winner
- Dixie
- Margin error
- 26.8
Aug 21, 2026
Dayton Christian vs. Miami East
- Projected
- 26–19
- Final
- 13–48
- Projected winner
- Dayton Christian
- Margin error
- 42.2
Aug 21, 2026
Arcanum vs. Covington
- Projected
- 22–23
- Final
- 7–31
- Projected winner
- Covington
- Margin error
- 23.9
Aug 21, 2026
Anna vs. Spencerville
- Projected
- 19–22
- Final
- 60–0
- Projected winner
- Spencerville
- Margin error
- 63.2
Aug 21, 2026
Allen East vs. Lima Perry
- Projected
- 18–20
- Final
- 49–0
- Projected winner
- Lima Perry
- Margin error
- 50.8
Aug 21, 2026
Worthington Christian vs. Grove City Christian
- Projected
- 22–25
- Final
- 30–3
- Projected winner
- Grove City Christian
- Margin error
- 29.6
Aug 21, 2026
Lucasville Valley vs. Paint Valley
- Projected
- 23–18
- Final
- 41–0
- Projected winner
- Lucasville Valley
- Margin error
- 36.0
Aug 21, 2026
Chillicothe Southeastern vs. Fairfield Christian
- Projected
- 14–23
- Final
- 28–0
- Projected winner
- Fairfield Christian
- Margin error
- 36.9
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | 25–21 | 32–8 | Ansonia | Ansonia | 19.6 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 22–20 | 32–30 | South Gallia | South Gallia | 0.7 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 19–15 | 14–0 | Millersport | Millersport | 10.8 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 20–19 | 32–0 | Waynesfield-Goshen | Waynesfield-Goshen | 31.0 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 19–20 | 6–26 | Toledo Christian | Toledo Christian | 19.1 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 24–22 | 7–40 | Edgerton | Edon | 34.8 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 15–18 | 41–14 | Cory-Rawson | Arcadia | 30.8 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 18–25 | 30–0 | Upper Scioto Valley | Ada | 36.6 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 17–26 | 0–33 | Toronto | Toronto | 23.2 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 19–18 | 22–38 | Sebring McKinley | Kennedy Catholic | 17.4 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 23–26 | 14–48 | McComb | McComb | 31.8 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 24–23 | 12–48 | Dalton | Danville | 36.2 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 20–16 | 35–7 | Buckeye Central | Buckeye Central | 24.6 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 18–19 | 40–2 | Ridgedale | Triad | 38.4 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 22–16 | 53–8 | National Trail | National Trail | 39.0 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 18–25 | 27–17 | Fort Loramie | Minster | 17.1 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 21–18 | 27–28 | Chillicothe Huntington | Newark Catholic | 4.0 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 17–16 | 28–0 | Dixie | Dixie | 26.8 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 26–19 | 13–48 | Dayton Christian | Miami East | 42.2 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 22–23 | 7–31 | Covington | Covington | 23.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 19–22 | 60–0 | Spencerville | Anna | 63.2 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 18–20 | 49–0 | Lima Perry | Allen East | 50.8 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 22–25 | 30–3 | Grove City Christian | Worthington Christian | 29.6 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 23–18 | 41–0 | Lucasville Valley | Lucasville Valley | 36.0 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 14–23 | 28–0 | Fairfield Christian | Chillicothe Southeastern | 36.9 | Missed |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
