Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Aug 21, 2026
Miami Trace vs. Waverly
- Projected
- 23–20
- Final
- 48–14
- Projected winner
- Miami Trace
- Margin error
- 30.3
Aug 21, 2026
Marietta vs. Morgan
- Projected
- 18–23
- Final
- 32–35
- Projected winner
- Morgan
- Margin error
- 1.5
Aug 21, 2026
Jonathan Alder vs. West Liberty-Salem
- Projected
- 24–23
- Final
- 41–10
- Projected winner
- Jonathan Alder
- Margin error
- 30.4
Aug 21, 2026
Granville vs. Clear Fork
- Projected
- 24–23
- Final
- 14–28
- Projected winner
- Granville
- Margin error
- 15.1
Aug 21, 2026
Eastmoor Academy vs. Bishop Ready
- Projected
- 21–22
- Final
- 0–41
- Projected winner
- Bishop Ready
- Margin error
- 40.5
Aug 21, 2026
Centennial vs. Grandview Heights
- Projected
- 16–28
- Final
- 18–26
- Projected winner
- Grandview Heights
- Margin error
- 4.3
Aug 21, 2026
Chillicothe vs. Circleville
- Projected
- 21–22
- Final
- 34–0
- Projected winner
- Circleville
- Margin error
- 35.4
Aug 21, 2026
Beechcroft vs. KIPP Columbus
- Projected
- 21–18
- Final
- 27–21
- Projected winner
- Beechcroft
- Margin error
- 3.4
Aug 21, 2026
Toledo Woodward vs. John Adams
- Projected
- 16–21
- Final
- 42–8
- Projected winner
- John Adams
- Margin error
- 39.4
Aug 21, 2026
West Holmes vs. Triway
- Projected
- 21–26
- Final
- 14–21
- Projected winner
- Triway
- Margin error
- 1.9
Aug 21, 2026
Rogers vs. Elida
- Projected
- 19–20
- Final
- 6–48
- Projected winner
- Elida
- Margin error
- 41.7
Aug 21, 2026
Rocky River vs. Akron Manchester
- Projected
- 25–24
- Final
- 28–7
- Projected winner
- Rocky River
- Margin error
- 20.8
Aug 21, 2026
Revere vs. Woodridge
- Projected
- 23–20
- Final
- 14–25
- Projected winner
- Revere
- Margin error
- 13.0
Aug 21, 2026
River Valley vs. Bloom-Carroll
- Projected
- 25–18
- Final
- 9–21
- Projected winner
- River Valley
- Margin error
- 18.9
Aug 21, 2026
Padua Franciscan vs. South Range
- Projected
- 17–26
- Final
- 7–46
- Projected winner
- South Range
- Margin error
- 29.9
Aug 21, 2026
Mansfield Madison vs. Shelby
- Projected
- 16–28
- Final
- 0–54
- Projected winner
- Shelby
- Margin error
- 42.9
Aug 21, 2026
Lexington vs. Ontario
- Projected
- 26–21
- Final
- 7–35
- Projected winner
- Lexington
- Margin error
- 32.3
Aug 21, 2026
Defiance vs. Napoleon
- Projected
- 17–26
- Final
- 9–8
- Projected winner
- Napoleon
- Margin error
- 9.7
Aug 21, 2026
Cleveland Central Catholic vs. Hawken
- Projected
- 18–24
- Final
- 24–29
- Projected winner
- Hawken
- Margin error
- 1.3
Aug 21, 2026
Medina Buckeye vs. Cloverleaf
- Projected
- 27–19
- Final
- 6–10
- Projected winner
- Medina Buckeye
- Margin error
- 11.6
Aug 21, 2026
Ashland vs. Bay
- Projected
- 27–21
- Final
- 28–7
- Projected winner
- Ashland
- Margin error
- 14.8
Aug 21, 2026
West Geauga vs. Fairview Park
- Projected
- 21–24
- Final
- 27–0
- Projected winner
- Fairview Park
- Margin error
- 29.7
Aug 21, 2026
Streetsboro vs. Copley
- Projected
- 25–24
- Final
- 20–28
- Projected winner
- Streetsboro
- Margin error
- 9.5
Aug 21, 2026
Akron Springfield vs. Waterloo
- Projected
- 16–17
- Final
- 3–8
- Projected winner
- Waterloo
- Margin error
- 3.6
Aug 21, 2026
Ravenna vs. Field
- Projected
- 17–22
- Final
- 28–7
- Projected winner
- Field
- Margin error
- 26.8
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | 23–20 | 48–14 | Miami Trace | Miami Trace | 30.3 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 18–23 | 32–35 | Morgan | Morgan | 1.5 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 24–23 | 41–10 | Jonathan Alder | Jonathan Alder | 30.4 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 24–23 | 14–28 | Granville | Clear Fork | 15.1 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 21–22 | 0–41 | Bishop Ready | Bishop Ready | 40.5 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 16–28 | 18–26 | Grandview Heights | Grandview Heights | 4.3 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 21–22 | 34–0 | Circleville | Chillicothe | 35.4 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 21–18 | 27–21 | Beechcroft | Beechcroft | 3.4 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 16–21 | 42–8 | John Adams | Toledo Woodward | 39.4 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 21–26 | 14–21 | Triway | Triway | 1.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 19–20 | 6–48 | Elida | Elida | 41.7 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 25–24 | 28–7 | Rocky River | Rocky River | 20.8 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 23–20 | 14–25 | Revere | Woodridge | 13.0 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 25–18 | 9–21 | River Valley | Bloom-Carroll | 18.9 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 17–26 | 7–46 | South Range | South Range | 29.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 16–28 | 0–54 | Shelby | Shelby | 42.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 26–21 | 7–35 | Lexington | Ontario | 32.3 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 17–26 | 9–8 | Napoleon | Defiance | 9.7 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 18–24 | 24–29 | Hawken | Hawken | 1.3 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 27–19 | 6–10 | Medina Buckeye | Cloverleaf | 11.6 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 27–21 | 28–7 | Ashland | Ashland | 14.8 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 21–24 | 27–0 | Fairview Park | West Geauga | 29.7 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 25–24 | 20–28 | Streetsboro | Copley | 9.5 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 16–17 | 3–8 | Waterloo | Waterloo | 3.6 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 17–22 | 28–7 | Field | Ravenna | 26.8 | Missed |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.