Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Aug 21, 2026
Union Local vs. Vincent Warren
- Projected
- 20–23
- Final
- 34–0
- Projected winner
- Vincent Warren
- Margin error
- 36.8
Aug 21, 2026
River View vs. Tri-County North
- Projected
- 14–21
- Final
- 0–62
- Projected winner
- Tri-County North
- Margin error
- 55.3
Aug 21, 2026
Logan Elm vs. Zane Trace
- Projected
- 20–25
- Final
- 27–46
- Projected winner
- Zane Trace
- Margin error
- 14.6
Aug 21, 2026
John Glenn vs. Barnesville
- Projected
- 23–24
- Final
- 19–34
- Projected winner
- Barnesville
- Margin error
- 13.7
Aug 21, 2026
Highland vs. Fredericktown
- Projected
- 18–23
- Final
- 28–7
- Projected winner
- Fredericktown
- Margin error
- 26.5
Aug 21, 2026
Heath vs. Philo
- Projected
- 20–26
- Final
- 21–50
- Projected winner
- Philo
- Margin error
- 23.2
Aug 21, 2026
Fairfield Union vs. New Lexington
- Projected
- 23–25
- Final
- 14–33
- Projected winner
- New Lexington
- Margin error
- 16.8
Aug 21, 2026
Claymont vs. Harrison Central
- Projected
- 16–24
- Final
- 43–0
- Projected winner
- Harrison Central
- Margin error
- 51.1
Aug 21, 2026
Bexley vs. Linden McKinley
- Projected
- 19–24
- Final
- 0–20
- Projected winner
- Linden McKinley
- Margin error
- 14.9
Aug 21, 2026
Wauseon vs. Fairview
- Projected
- 13–31
- Final
- 26–56
- Projected winner
- Fairview
- Margin error
- 12.1
Aug 21, 2026
Vermilion vs. Johnstown
- Projected
- 17–29
- Final
- 14–34
- Projected winner
- Johnstown
- Margin error
- 7.9
Aug 21, 2026
Upper Sandusky vs. Northmor
- Projected
- 21–24
- Final
- 30–21
- Projected winner
- Northmor
- Margin error
- 12.5
Aug 21, 2026
Rossford vs. Northwood
- Projected
- 14–23
- Final
- 24–27
- Projected winner
- Northwood
- Margin error
- 6.3
Aug 21, 2026
Port Clinton vs. Norwalk St. Paul
- Projected
- 27–18
- Final
- 35–0
- Projected winner
- Port Clinton
- Margin error
- 26.4
Aug 21, 2026
Lutheran West vs. Elyria Catholic
- Projected
- 18–19
- Final
- 13–47
- Projected winner
- Elyria Catholic
- Margin error
- 33.1
Aug 21, 2026
Keystone vs. Norwayne
- Projected
- 20–28
- Final
- 36–21
- Projected winner
- Norwayne
- Margin error
- 22.1
Aug 21, 2026
Kenton vs. Eastwood
- Projected
- 19–24
- Final
- 20–28
- Projected winner
- Eastwood
- Margin error
- 3.0
Aug 21, 2026
Huron vs. Oak Harbor
- Projected
- 20–27
- Final
- 7–42
- Projected winner
- Oak Harbor
- Margin error
- 27.0
Aug 21, 2026
Milan Edison vs. Patrick Henry
- Projected
- 22–26
- Final
- 21–42
- Projected winner
- Patrick Henry
- Margin error
- 17.4
Aug 21, 2026
Bryan vs. Van Wert
- Projected
- 17–21
- Final
- 6–41
- Projected winner
- Van Wert
- Margin error
- 31.4
Aug 21, 2026
Bellevue vs. Clyde
- Projected
- 20–23
- Final
- 42–0
- Projected winner
- Clyde
- Margin error
- 45.4
Aug 21, 2026
West Branch vs. St. Clairsville
- Projected
- 26–25
- Final
- 37–6
- Projected winner
- West Branch
- Margin error
- 30.8
Aug 21, 2026
Cleveland VASJ vs. Perkins
- Projected
- 26–24
- Final
- 41–44
- Projected winner
- Cleveland VASJ
- Margin error
- 5.4
Aug 21, 2026
Shaw vs. Clearview
- Projected
- 21–20
- Final
- 40–30
- Projected winner
- Shaw
- Margin error
- 8.4
Aug 21, 2026
Poland Seminary vs. Salem
- Projected
- 23–25
- Final
- 17–21
- Projected winner
- Salem
- Margin error
- 2.3
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | 20–23 | 34–0 | Vincent Warren | Union Local | 36.8 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 14–21 | 0–62 | Tri-County North | Tri-County North | 55.3 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 20–25 | 27–46 | Zane Trace | Zane Trace | 14.6 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 23–24 | 19–34 | Barnesville | Barnesville | 13.7 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 18–23 | 28–7 | Fredericktown | Highland | 26.5 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 20–26 | 21–50 | Philo | Philo | 23.2 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 23–25 | 14–33 | New Lexington | New Lexington | 16.8 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 16–24 | 43–0 | Harrison Central | Claymont | 51.1 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 19–24 | 0–20 | Linden McKinley | Linden McKinley | 14.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 13–31 | 26–56 | Fairview | Fairview | 12.1 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 17–29 | 14–34 | Johnstown | Johnstown | 7.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 21–24 | 30–21 | Northmor | Upper Sandusky | 12.5 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 14–23 | 24–27 | Northwood | Northwood | 6.3 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 27–18 | 35–0 | Port Clinton | Port Clinton | 26.4 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 18–19 | 13–47 | Elyria Catholic | Elyria Catholic | 33.1 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 20–28 | 36–21 | Norwayne | Keystone | 22.1 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 19–24 | 20–28 | Eastwood | Eastwood | 3.0 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 20–27 | 7–42 | Oak Harbor | Oak Harbor | 27.0 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 22–26 | 21–42 | Patrick Henry | Patrick Henry | 17.4 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 17–21 | 6–41 | Van Wert | Van Wert | 31.4 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 20–23 | 42–0 | Clyde | Bellevue | 45.4 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 26–25 | 37–6 | West Branch | West Branch | 30.8 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 26–24 | 41–44 | Cleveland VASJ | Perkins | 5.4 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 21–20 | 40–30 | Shaw | Shaw | 8.4 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 23–25 | 17–21 | Salem | Salem | 2.3 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
