Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Aug 21, 2026
Clermont Northeastern vs. Mariemont
- Projected
- 23–17
- Final
- 0–33
- Projected winner
- Clermont Northeastern
- Margin error
- 38.8
Aug 21, 2026
Brookville vs. Parkway
- Projected
- 24–17
- Final
- 14–27
- Projected winner
- Brookville
- Margin error
- 20.1
Aug 21, 2026
Blanchester vs. Greeneview
- Projected
- 26–17
- Final
- 28–35
- Projected winner
- Blanchester
- Margin error
- 17.0
Aug 21, 2026
Bethel vs. Tri-Village
- Projected
- 17–27
- Final
- 3–21
- Projected winner
- Tri-Village
- Margin error
- 7.9
Aug 21, 2026
Westfall vs. Madison Plains
- Projected
- 25–16
- Final
- 6–39
- Projected winner
- Westfall
- Margin error
- 41.8
Aug 21, 2026
Utica vs. Centerburg
- Projected
- 17–29
- Final
- 14–35
- Projected winner
- Centerburg
- Margin error
- 9.3
Aug 21, 2026
South Point vs. Beaver Eastern
- Projected
- 14–29
- Final
- 30–27
- Projected winner
- Beaver Eastern
- Margin error
- 18.4
Aug 21, 2026
WL Ridgewood vs. Fort Frye
- Projected
- 26–25
- Final
- 14–19
- Projected winner
- WL Ridgewood
- Margin error
- 5.8
Aug 21, 2026
Bidwell River Valley vs. Berne Union
- Projected
- 19–18
- Final
- 6–40
- Projected winner
- Bidwell River Valley
- Margin error
- 34.3
Aug 21, 2026
Portsmouth West vs. Fairland
- Projected
- 20–22
- Final
- 19–13
- Projected winner
- Fairland
- Margin error
- 7.9
Aug 21, 2026
Portsmouth vs. Wheelersburg
- Projected
- 21–28
- Final
- 0–63
- Projected winner
- Wheelersburg
- Margin error
- 56.0
Aug 21, 2026
Oak Hill vs. Wellston
- Projected
- 19–15
- Final
- 6–35
- Projected winner
- Oak Hill
- Margin error
- 33.4
Aug 21, 2026
Minford vs. Rock Hill
- Projected
- 14–23
- Final
- 20–49
- Projected winner
- Rock Hill
- Margin error
- 20.6
Aug 21, 2026
Liberty Union vs. Monroe Central
- Projected
- 18–24
- Final
- 12–33
- Projected winner
- Monroe Central
- Margin error
- 15.5
Aug 21, 2026
Chesapeake vs. Symmes Valley
- Projected
- 15–25
- Final
- 14–55
- Projected winner
- Symmes Valley
- Margin error
- 30.3
Aug 21, 2026
Amanda-Clearcreek vs. West Jefferson
- Projected
- 19–29
- Final
- 12–29
- Projected winner
- West Jefferson
- Margin error
- 7.1
Aug 21, 2026
Alexander vs. Miller
- Projected
- 18–22
- Final
- 47–14
- Projected winner
- Miller
- Margin error
- 37.0
Aug 21, 2026
Wynford vs. Cardington-Lincoln
- Projected
- 17–20
- Final
- 34–20
- Projected winner
- Cardington-Lincoln
- Margin error
- 17.2
Aug 21, 2026
Willard vs. South Central
- Projected
- 18–17
- Final
- 16–12
- Projected winner
- Willard
- Margin error
- 3.6
Aug 21, 2026
Waynedale vs. Tuscarawas Valley
- Projected
- 15–19
- Final
- 0–35
- Projected winner
- Tuscarawas Valley
- Margin error
- 30.8
Aug 21, 2026
Swanton vs. North Central
- Projected
- 13–21
- Final
- 13–12
- Projected winner
- North Central
- Margin error
- 9.0
Aug 21, 2026
WS Northwestern vs. Ashland Crestview
- Projected
- 20–21
- Final
- 54–14
- Projected winner
- Ashland Crestview
- Margin error
- 40.0
Aug 21, 2026
North Union vs. Marion Pleasant
- Projected
- 23–17
- Final
- 49–7
- Projected winner
- North Union
- Margin error
- 36.9
Aug 21, 2026
Liberty-Benton vs. Ottawa-Glandorf
- Projected
- 27–18
- Final
- 7–52
- Projected winner
- Liberty-Benton
- Margin error
- 54.2
Aug 21, 2026
Millbury Lake vs. Hopewell-Loudon
- Projected
- 23–22
- Final
- 13–49
- Projected winner
- Millbury Lake
- Margin error
- 36.3
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | 23–17 | 0–33 | Clermont Northeastern | Mariemont | 38.8 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 24–17 | 14–27 | Brookville | Parkway | 20.1 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 26–17 | 28–35 | Blanchester | Greeneview | 17.0 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 17–27 | 3–21 | Tri-Village | Tri-Village | 7.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 25–16 | 6–39 | Westfall | Madison Plains | 41.8 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 17–29 | 14–35 | Centerburg | Centerburg | 9.3 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 14–29 | 30–27 | Beaver Eastern | South Point | 18.4 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 26–25 | 14–19 | WL Ridgewood | Fort Frye | 5.8 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 19–18 | 6–40 | Bidwell River Valley | Berne Union | 34.3 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 20–22 | 19–13 | Fairland | Portsmouth West | 7.9 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 21–28 | 0–63 | Wheelersburg | Wheelersburg | 56.0 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 19–15 | 6–35 | Oak Hill | Wellston | 33.4 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 14–23 | 20–49 | Rock Hill | Rock Hill | 20.6 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 18–24 | 12–33 | Monroe Central | Monroe Central | 15.5 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 15–25 | 14–55 | Symmes Valley | Symmes Valley | 30.3 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 19–29 | 12–29 | West Jefferson | West Jefferson | 7.1 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 18–22 | 47–14 | Miller | Alexander | 37.0 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 17–20 | 34–20 | Cardington-Lincoln | Wynford | 17.2 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 18–17 | 16–12 | Willard | Willard | 3.6 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 15–19 | 0–35 | Tuscarawas Valley | Tuscarawas Valley | 30.8 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 13–21 | 13–12 | North Central | Swanton | 9.0 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 20–21 | 54–14 | Ashland Crestview | WS Northwestern | 40.0 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 23–17 | 49–7 | North Union | North Union | 36.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 27–18 | 7–52 | Liberty-Benton | Ottawa-Glandorf | 54.2 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 23–22 | 13–49 | Millbury Lake | Hopewell-Loudon | 36.3 | Missed |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
