Games evaluated
2,842
Public validation record
2026 Football Model Performance
These results use official OSPR projections locked before kickoff and evaluated against final scores. Mirrored schedule records and live forecasts are excluded.
Evaluated through Oct 15, 2026
Accuracy calculated Oct 16, 2026 8:00 AM EDT
Performance summary
2,842 games evaluated with ospr-2026.1
Winner accuracy
68.5%
1,947 correct
Average margin error
22.5
Lower is better
Average score error
13.3
Per-team points
Brier score
0.203
Probability accuracy
Close projection rate
14.1%
Correct and within 7
Regular season vs. playoffs
A direct comparison using the selected season, week, team, and OSPR model version.
Regular season
- Games
- 2,842
- Winner accuracy
- 68.5%
- Margin error
- 22.5
Playoffs
- Games
- 0
- Winner accuracy
- —
- Margin error
- —
Performance by week
Results for the selected model version and season phase.
| Week | Games | Winner accuracy | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 355 | 58.3% | 22.0 |
| Week 2 | 351 | 61.0% | 23.3 |
| Week 3 | 358 | 62.3% | 21.9 |
| Week 4 | 354 | 65.3% | 23.5 |
| Week 5 | 356 | 74.4% | 22.6 |
| Week 6 | 357 | 80.4% | 22.7 |
| Week 7 | 358 | 75.4% | 22.0 |
| Week 8 | 348 | 71.3% | 21.8 |
| Week 9 | 4 | 25.0% | 26.2 |
Probability calibration
Observed win rate should approach the average predicted probability as sample sizes grow.
| Probability | Games | Predicted | Observed | Gap | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–9% | 13 | 8.5% | 7.7% | -0.8 | 0.069 |
| 10–19% | 178 | 15.9% | 9.6% | -6.4 | 0.091 |
| 20–29% | 302 | 25.5% | 23.2% | -2.3 | 0.178 |
| 30–39% | 445 | 35.1% | 35.1% | 0.0 | 0.227 |
| 40–49% | 562 | 45.1% | 43.6% | -1.5 | 0.245 |
| 50–59% | 478 | 54.9% | 57.7% | +2.9 | 0.247 |
| 60–69% | 404 | 64.8% | 71.0% | +6.2 | 0.205 |
| 70–79% | 325 | 74.8% | 79.7% | +4.9 | 0.162 |
| 80–89% | 128 | 84.0% | 86.7% | +2.7 | 0.113 |
| 90–99% | 7 | 91.9% | 85.7% | -6.1 | 0.127 |
Performance by prediction confidence
Newer snapshots use historical calibration and comparable sample size. Legacy snapshots fall back to rating-evidence confidence.
| Confidence | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| High | 2,368 | 69.6% | 22.4 points |
| Medium | 31 | 80.6% | 23.7 points |
| Low | 443 | 61.9% | 22.6 points |
Performance by risk indicator
A game may appear in more than one group because indicators describe different kinds of uncertainty.
| Indicator | Games | Winner accuracy | Average margin error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Limited Data | 1,515 | 62.4% | 22.9 points |
| Close Game | 2,021 | 62.8% | 22.3 points |
| Upset Possible | 1,886 | 61.9% | 22.1 points |
| Blowout Range | 1 | 100.0% | 23.8 points |
Largest misses
The largest margin errors in this selection. A miss is a model result to learn from, not automatically a data error.
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Margin error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Farrell vs. Reynolds | 25–24 | 84–0 | 82.5 points |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Normandy vs. Rocky River | 14–28 | 0–83 | 68.7 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Trotwood-Madison vs. Taft | 23–17 | 72–0 | 65.6 points |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford vs. Cleveland JFK | 18–17 | 66–0 | 64.8 points |
| Sep 18, 2026 | John Adams vs. Cleveland JFK | 16–18 | 68–6 | 64.4 points |
Evaluated games
The game-level record behind the summary above.
Aug 21, 2026
Paulding vs. Convoy Crestview
- Projected
- 22–23
- Final
- 18–6
- Projected winner
- Convoy Crestview
- Margin error
- 13.8
Aug 21, 2026
Ottawa Hills vs. Vanlue
- Projected
- 20–16
- Final
- 62–8
- Projected winner
- Ottawa Hills
- Margin error
- 49.5
Aug 21, 2026
New London vs. Woodmore
- Projected
- 17–23
- Final
- 7–61
- Projected winner
- Woodmore
- Margin error
- 47.7
Aug 21, 2026
Margaretta vs. Mohawk
- Projected
- 27–22
- Final
- 30–20
- Projected winner
- Margaretta
- Margin error
- 4.9
Aug 21, 2026
Hicksville vs. Hilltop
- Projected
- 17–16
- Final
- 7–12
- Projected winner
- Hicksville
- Margin error
- 5.6
Aug 21, 2026
Liberty Center vs. Tinora
- Projected
- 31–17
- Final
- 61–0
- Projected winner
- Liberty Center
- Margin error
- 46.6
Aug 21, 2026
Gibsonburg vs. Seneca East
- Projected
- 23–27
- Final
- 26–44
- Projected winner
- Seneca East
- Margin error
- 14.0
Aug 21, 2026
Evergreen vs. Delphos Jefferson
- Projected
- 21–15
- Final
- 6–34
- Projected winner
- Evergreen
- Margin error
- 33.9
Aug 21, 2026
Delta vs. Ayersville
- Projected
- 22–20
- Final
- 47–0
- Projected winner
- Delta
- Margin error
- 45.3
Aug 21, 2026
Bucyrus vs. North Baltimore
- Projected
- 17–23
- Final
- 12–44
- Projected winner
- North Baltimore
- Margin error
- 26.0
Aug 21, 2026
Carey vs. Marion Local
- Projected
- 23–28
- Final
- 7–34
- Projected winner
- Marion Local
- Margin error
- 21.5
Aug 21, 2026
Wellington vs. Western Reserve
- Projected
- 19–24
- Final
- 7–45
- Projected winner
- Western Reserve
- Margin error
- 33.2
Aug 21, 2026
Trinity vs. Malvern
- Projected
- 17–25
- Final
- 20–24
- Projected winner
- Malvern
- Margin error
- 3.8
Aug 21, 2026
St. Thomas Aquinas vs. Strasburg-Franklin
- Projected
- 17–21
- Final
- 14–43
- Projected winner
- Strasburg-Franklin
- Margin error
- 26.0
Aug 21, 2026
Rittman vs. Cleveland JFK
- Projected
- 21–15
- Final
- 52–0
- Projected winner
- Rittman
- Margin error
- 46.3
Aug 21, 2026
Newton Falls vs. Wellsville
- Projected
- 16–17
- Final
- 56–13
- Projected winner
- Wellsville
- Margin error
- 44.3
Aug 21, 2026
Mineral Ridge vs. Pymatuning Valley
- Projected
- 24–25
- Final
- 42–7
- Projected winner
- Pymatuning Valley
- Margin error
- 36.9
Aug 21, 2026
East Palestine vs. Shadyside
- Projected
- 24–15
- Final
- 13–49
- Projected winner
- East Palestine
- Margin error
- 44.3
Aug 21, 2026
Columbiana vs. Lowellville
- Projected
- 18–25
- Final
- 27–24
- Projected winner
- Lowellville
- Margin error
- 10.4
Aug 21, 2026
Columbia vs. Independence
- Projected
- 24–19
- Final
- 56–7
- Projected winner
- Columbia
- Margin error
- 44.1
Aug 21, 2026
Black River vs. Hillsdale
- Projected
- 23–25
- Final
- 20–34
- Projected winner
- Hillsdale
- Margin error
- 11.9
Aug 21, 2026
Summit Country Day vs. Cincinnati Country Day
- Projected
- 18–27
- Final
- 26–30
- Projected winner
- Cincinnati Country Day
- Margin error
- 4.5
Aug 21, 2026
Middletown Madison vs. Preble Shawnee
- Projected
- 18–25
- Final
- 13–20
- Projected winner
- Preble Shawnee
- Margin error
- 0.5
Aug 21, 2026
Greenon vs. Springfield Shawnee
- Projected
- 23–15
- Final
- 13–12
- Projected winner
- Greenon
- Margin error
- 7.2
Aug 21, 2026
East Clinton vs. Miami Valley CA
- Projected
- 18–19
- Final
- 0–40
- Projected winner
- Miami Valley CA
- Margin error
- 39.1
| Date | Matchup | Projected | Final | Projected winner | Actual winner | Margin error | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | 22–23 | 18–6 | Convoy Crestview | Paulding | 13.8 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 20–16 | 62–8 | Ottawa Hills | Ottawa Hills | 49.5 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 17–23 | 7–61 | Woodmore | Woodmore | 47.7 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 27–22 | 30–20 | Margaretta | Margaretta | 4.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 17–16 | 7–12 | Hicksville | Hilltop | 5.6 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 31–17 | 61–0 | Liberty Center | Liberty Center | 46.6 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 23–27 | 26–44 | Seneca East | Seneca East | 14.0 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 21–15 | 6–34 | Evergreen | Delphos Jefferson | 33.9 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 22–20 | 47–0 | Delta | Delta | 45.3 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 17–23 | 12–44 | North Baltimore | North Baltimore | 26.0 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 23–28 | 7–34 | Marion Local | Marion Local | 21.5 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 19–24 | 7–45 | Western Reserve | Western Reserve | 33.2 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 17–25 | 20–24 | Malvern | Malvern | 3.8 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 17–21 | 14–43 | Strasburg-Franklin | Strasburg-Franklin | 26.0 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 21–15 | 52–0 | Rittman | Rittman | 46.3 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 16–17 | 56–13 | Wellsville | Newton Falls | 44.3 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 24–25 | 42–7 | Pymatuning Valley | Mineral Ridge | 36.9 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 24–15 | 13–49 | East Palestine | Shadyside | 44.3 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 18–25 | 27–24 | Lowellville | Columbiana | 10.4 | Missed | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 24–19 | 56–7 | Columbia | Columbia | 44.1 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 23–25 | 20–34 | Hillsdale | Hillsdale | 11.9 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 18–27 | 26–30 | Cincinnati Country Day | Cincinnati Country Day | 4.5 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 18–25 | 13–20 | Preble Shawnee | Preble Shawnee | 0.5 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 23–15 | 13–12 | Greenon | Greenon | 7.2 | Correct | |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 18–19 | 0–40 | Miami Valley CA | Miami Valley CA | 39.1 | Correct |
How to interpret these numbers
Winner accuracy shows whether OSPR favored the team that won. Average margin error shows how far the projected point margin was from the final margin.
Brier score measures probability quality from 0 to 1; lower is better. Calibration compares predicted win probabilities with observed outcomes.
Small groups can swing sharply, so every percentage is shown with its evaluated game count.
Injuries, roster changes, weather, and information not reflected in recorded results may affect individual games.
