Matchup Predictor
Compare any two Ohio teams using OSPR ratings and recorded game results.
OSPR Prediction
Context
Competition week 3
Data cutoff
Final scores through Aug 29, 2026
Games in current ratings
Carey 2 · Lucas 2
OSPR calculation
Version 2026.1
Neutral Site · Generated Sep 1, 2026 12:14 AM EDT
Version 2026.1 Live projection
Carey
18
Range: 0.7-35.3
Lucas
WINNER22
Range: 4.7-39.3
PREDICTED SPREAD
Lucas -4.4
OVER/UNDER
40.5 points
Slow pace
CALIBRATED CONFIDENCE
High
213 comparable results
PLAUSIBLE MARGIN RANGE
Lucas by 38.6 to Carey by 30.6
The current score ranges include outcomes where either team wins.
Win estimate and confidence answer different questions.
The win estimate expresses which team the current ratings favor. High confidence based on 213 prior OSPR predictions in the 60–69% band with close calibration. Confidence uses historical calibration and sample size, while Limited Data also identifies weak current-season rating evidence. Use the plausible margin range when confidence is limited.
Matchup Analysis
Carey Style:
Defensive
Lucas Style:
Defensive
Key Matchup:
Lucas defense vs Carey offense - advantage Lucas
Insights:
- Both teams are defense-heavy - expect low scoring slugfest
- Lucas has momentum advantage
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