Matchup Predictor
Compare any two Ohio teams using OSPR ratings and recorded game results.
OSPR Prediction
Context
Competition week 3
Data cutoff
Final scores through Aug 29, 2026
Games in current ratings
Smithville 2 · Black River 2
OSPR calculation
Version 2026.1
Neutral Site · Generated Aug 31, 2026 11:34 PM EDT
Version 2026.1 Live projection
Smithville
WINNER28
Range: 10.7-45.3
Black River
17
Range: 0-34.3
PREDICTED SPREAD
Smithville -10.8
OVER/UNDER
45 points
Moderate pace
CALIBRATED CONFIDENCE
High
44 comparable results
PLAUSIBLE MARGIN RANGE
Black River by 23.6 to Smithville by 45.3
The current score ranges include outcomes where either team wins.
Win estimate and confidence answer different questions.
The win estimate expresses which team the current ratings favor. High confidence based on 44 prior OSPR predictions in the 80–89% band with close calibration. Confidence uses historical calibration and sample size, while Limited Data also identifies weak current-season rating evidence. Use the plausible margin range when confidence is limited.
Matchup Analysis
Smithville Style:
Offensive
Black River Style:
Defensive
Key Matchup:
Smithville defense vs Black River offense - advantage Smithville
Insights:
- Classic offense vs defense matchup - expect lower scoring
- Smithville has momentum advantage
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