Matchup Predictor
Compare any two Ohio teams using OSPR ratings and recorded game results.
OSPR Prediction
Context
Competition week 3
Data cutoff
Final scores through Aug 29, 2026
Games in current ratings
Arlington 2 · Ada 2
OSPR calculation
Version 2026.1
Neutral Site · Generated Aug 31, 2026 10:44 PM EDT
Version 2026.1 Live projection
Arlington
17
Range: 0-34.3
Ada
WINNER26
Range: 8.7-43.3
PREDICTED SPREAD
Ada -8.6
OVER/UNDER
43.5 points
Moderate pace
CALIBRATED CONFIDENCE
High
157 comparable results
PLAUSIBLE MARGIN RANGE
Ada by 43.3 to Arlington by 25.6
The current score ranges include outcomes where either team wins.
Win estimate and confidence answer different questions.
The win estimate expresses which team the current ratings favor. High confidence based on 157 prior OSPR predictions in the 70–79% band with close calibration. Confidence uses historical calibration and sample size, while Limited Data also identifies weak current-season rating evidence. Use the plausible margin range when confidence is limited.
Matchup Analysis
Arlington Style:
Balanced
Ada Style:
Balanced
Key Matchup:
Ada offense vs Arlington defense - advantage Ada
Insights:
- Significant tier mismatch favors Ada
- Ada has momentum advantage
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