Matchup Predictor
Compare any two Ohio teams using OSPR ratings and recorded game results.
OSPR Prediction
Context
Competition week 3
Data cutoff
Final scores through Aug 29, 2026
Games in current ratings
Middletown 2 · Fairfield 2
OSPR calculation
Version 2026.1
Neutral Site · Generated Aug 31, 2026 10:00 PM EDT
Version 2026.1 Live projection
Middletown
17
Range: 0-34.3
Fairfield
WINNER22
Range: 4.7-39.3
PREDICTED SPREAD
Fairfield -4.8
OVER/UNDER
39 points
Slow pace
CALIBRATED CONFIDENCE
High
213 comparable results
PLAUSIBLE MARGIN RANGE
Fairfield by 39.3 to Middletown by 29.6
The current score ranges include outcomes where either team wins.
Win estimate and confidence answer different questions.
The win estimate expresses which team the current ratings favor. High confidence based on 213 prior OSPR predictions in the 60–69% band with close calibration. Confidence uses historical calibration and sample size, while Limited Data also identifies weak current-season rating evidence. Use the plausible margin range when confidence is limited.
Matchup Analysis
Middletown Style:
Defensive
Fairfield Style:
Defensive
Key Matchup:
Fairfield defense vs Middletown offense - advantage Fairfield
Insights:
- Both teams are defense-heavy - expect low scoring slugfest
- Fairfield has momentum advantage
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